528
FXUS65 KLKN 102123
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
123 PM PST TUE FEB 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1225 PM PST TUE FEB 10 2026
* STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED IN CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING
* PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
* ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NV THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE REGION MIXING DOWN TO CREATE SUSTAINED WINDS OF
20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH. WHILE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS CENTRAL NV THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, CRITERIA LEVEL WINDS
WILL DECREASE AFTER 7PM PST TONIGHT.
THE DOWNSTREAM FLOW AND ASSOCIATED EMBEDDED JET OF A ULT OFF THE
CA COAST IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORE VIGOROUS FLOW OVERHEAD TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO THE CATALYST FOR INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
FORCING IS KEEPING THE CURRENT MOISTURE PUSH LIMITED TO INCREASED
CLOUD COVERAGE ACCORDING TO LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM THE AREA WILL SEE PREDOMINANTLY RAINFALL
WITH ESPECIALLY FOR VALLEY FLOORS AT OR BELOW 6500 FEET. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO DROP BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AM WHEN
THE SYSTEM MAKES IT EXIT TO THE EAST. FOR WEDNESDAY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE BETTER THANKS TO SOME INCREASED FRONTOGENESIS
OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NV. THIS IS DUE TO THE SYSTEM
MEANDERING A BIT CLOSER TO THE AREA THOUGH THE LPC WILL ULTIMATELY
STAY SOUTH OF THE REGION AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD BY THURSDAY PM.
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE 0.1-0.3 INCHES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH BETTER ACCUMULATIONS TO THE WEST. THURSDAY AM
0.05-0.1 INCHES IS FORECAST FOR EASTERN NV AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES TO
THE EAST. 4-6 INCHES OF NEW SNOWFALL ARE POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN NV
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND PEAKS AND HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 8-12 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL NV HIGH ELEVATIONS PARTICULARLY IN
NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY.
THE REGION ENJOYS A POST FRONTAL REGIME BY FRIDAY THOUGH THE NEXT
SYSTEM WITH MUCH STRONGER DYNAMICS PUTS THE AREA BACK INTO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY SATURDAY. THIS IS INDICATED BY AREA
TEMPERATURES NOT SEEING AS MUCH OF A DROP OFF BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVERHEAD AGAIN SUNDAY INCREASING WIND
SPEEDS OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL NV SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND BETTER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THOUGH THE STORM TRACK
IS SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT WEATHER SYSTEM SO EXPECTED TREND IS TO
SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THESE VALUES AS TIME GROWS CLOSER TO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN STRONG
WINDS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING IN CENTRAL NV. WIND/WIND GUST
GRIDS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY WERE BUMPED UP USING HRRR AS NBM DOES
A POOR JOB WITH WINDS IN SHORT TERM. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY AS NBM HAS ALSO HANDLED
THIS SYSTEM POORLY AS WELL. STORMTOTAL GRIDS WERE MOVED 24 HOURS
FURTHER OUT AS THE INCOMING SYSTEMS TIMING HAS SHIFTED YET AGAIN
RENDERING CONFIDENCE LOW IN NEXT WEEKS FORECAST.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL BE
INTERRUPTED INTERMITTENTLY BY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AS SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE AREA WILL LOWER CIGS AND VIS AT ALL
TERMINALS STARTING LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AT KTPH AND KELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GUST TO A RANGE OF 30-35KTS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST WEDNESDAY NVZ035-037-040-041.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...94
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