679
FXUS65 KLKN 110801 AAA
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1201 AM PST WED FEB 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1201 AM PST WED FEB 11 2026
* STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED IN CENTRAL NEVADA EARLY THIS MORNING
* PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
* A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA
EARLY NEXT WEEK
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1201 AM PST WED FEB 11 2026
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: THE DOWNSTREAM FLOW AND ASSOCIATED
EMBEDDED JET OF A ULT OFF THE CA COAST IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORE
VIGOROUS FLOW OVERHEAD TODAY. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO THE CATALYST FOR
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING
IS KEEPING THE CURRENT MOISTURE PUSH LIMITED TO INCREASED CLOUD
COVERAGE ACCORDING TO LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THIS SYSTEM, THE AREA WILL SEE PREDOMINANTLY RAINFALL WITH
ESPECIALLY FOR VALLEY FLOORS AT OR BELOW 6500 FEET. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BEGIN TO DROP BY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AM WHEN THE SYSTEM MAKES IT
EXIT TO THE EAST. FOR TODAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE BETTER
THANKS TO SOME INCREASED FRONTOGENESIS OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NV. THIS IS DUE TO THE SYSTEM MEANDERING A BIT CLOSER TO
THE AREA THOUGH THE LPC WILL ULTIMATELY STAY SOUTH OF THE REGION AS
IT PUSHES EASTWARD BY THURSDAY PM. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE 0.1-0.3 INCHES ON TODAY, WITH BETTER ACCUMULATIONS TO
THE WEST. THURSDAY AM 0.05-0.1 INCHES IS FORECAST FOR EASTERN NV AS
THE SYSTEM PUSHES TO THE EAST. 4-6 INCHES OF NEW SNOWFALL ARE
POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN NV HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND PEAKS AND HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 8-12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL NV HIGH ELEVATIONS
PARTICULARLY IN NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY.
THE REGION ENJOYS A POST FRONTAL REGIME BY FRIDAY THOUGH THE NEXT
SYSTEM WITH MUCH STRONGER DYNAMICS PUTS THE AREA BACK INTO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY SATURDAY. THIS IS INDICATED BY AREA
TEMPERATURES NOT SEEING AS MUCH OF A DROP OFF BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVERHEAD AGAIN SUNDAY INCREASING WIND
SPEEDS OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL NV SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND BETTER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THOUGH THE STORM TRACK
IS SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT WEATHER SYSTEM SO EXPECTED TREND IS TO
SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THESE VALUES AS TIME GROWS CLOSER TO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN STRONG
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING IN CENTRAL NV. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY AS NBM HAS ALSO HANDLED THIS
SYSTEM POORLY AS WELL. STORMTOTAL GRIDS WERE MOVED 24 HOURS FURTHER
OUT AS THE INCOMING SYSTEMS TIMING HAS SHIFTED YET AGAIN RENDERING
CONFIDENCE LOW IN NEXT WEEKS FORECAST.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE CONCEIVABLE IN AND NEAR
PRECIPITATION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS POSSIBILITY IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
FOR INCLUSION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST THIS MORNING NVZ035-037-040-041.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...94
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