725
FXUS65 KLKN 122050
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1250 PM PST THU FEB 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1144 AM PST THU FEB 12 2026
* PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT
* DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
* STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTS IN CENTRAL NEVADA SUNDAY AND MONDAY
* A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: AN LPC PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN NV THURSDAY PROVIDES ENOUGH DYNAMICAL FORCING ALONG ITS
SOUTHEASTERN FLANK TO CREATE SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCATIONS THAT WILL SEE STORM
ACTIVITY INCLUDE NORTHERN NYE, WHITE PINE, AND SOUTHERN ELKO
COUNTIES. OTHERWISE SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL EBB THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES TO THE EAST AWAY FROM THE STATE TAKING AVAILABLE MOISTURE
FOR PRECIPITATION WITH IT.
A WEST-EAST ORIENTED RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY FRIDAY
DRYING THE REGION OUT AND BUMPING AFTERNOON HIGHS UP ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY THROUGH SUNDAY.
QUIET WEATHER IS SHORT-LIVED AS A MUCH STRONGER ULT BEGINS TO
ENCROACH ON THE STATE BY SUNDAY PM. AS THE TROUGH MAKES LANDFALL
OVER THE WEST COAST SUNDAY ITS SOUTHEASTERN EDGE WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. A RESULTING JET IN THE
DOWNSTREAM FLOW WILL SIGNAL STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
SPEEDS PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
THE ULT WILL PUSH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE REGION NEXT
WEEK RIDING THE PARENT TROUGHS AXIS PATTERN. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS
FAVORABLE FOR MULTIPLE WAVE PASSAGES TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
ECMWF GUIDANCE KEEPS A FAIRLY HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY AS EACH WAVES PASSES THROUGH THE BASIN. EXACT TIMING
OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING OVER THE AREA HAS DANCED BACK AND FORTH
BETWEEN MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY WITH RECENT RUNS. A MONDAY
SOLUTION WOULD MEAN INITIAL RAINFALL THAT WOULD CHANGEOVER AND
STAY SNOWFALL BY TUESDAY. A TUESDAY INITIATION WOULD MEAN MORE
SNOW THAN RAIN AS COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST WAVE PASSAGE
ENTRENCHES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
WITH THIS STACCATO OF SHORTWAVES FOR A MULTI INCH SNOWFALL TOTAL
BY SYSTEMS END THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. FUTURE MODEL GUIDANCE WILL
HONE IN ON EXACT AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS AS TIME GROWS CLOSER.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NV TODAY AS WELL AS
DRIER, WARMER WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. REASONABLE CONFIDENCE
EXISTS IN WINDY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH
WINDS SPEED ARE PROBABLY UNDERDONE BY NBM PER USUAL. LESS
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR KEKO, KELY, AND KENV
WILL CREATE INTERMITTENT MVFR & IFR CONDITIONS AT THOSE LOCATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VCFG WILL ALSO HAMPER VIS AND CIGS AT
KELY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE BURNING OFF MY MIDDAY FRIDAY.
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15KTS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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