312
FXUS65 KLKN 012118
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
118 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
117 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2026
* PERIODS OF MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.
* COLDER STORM SYSTEM TO ARRIVE MID-WEEK WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
* HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
PRECEDING IT ACROSS THE SILVER STATE. A BROAD DEFORMATION ZONE TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THIS CLOSED LOW HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS TODAY WITH SNOW
LEVELS ONLY DROPPING TO 6500 FEET INTO MONDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM BY MID AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA, EVENTUALLY SPREADING ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS,
EVENTUALLY ORGANIZING INTO LARGER AREAS OF STRATIFORM RAIN THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CHANCE FOR THUNDER GENERALLY 15% OR LESS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.
THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN AS IT MOVES ONSHORE AND ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN MONDAY, WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THANKS TO WEAK
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY BENEATH THE LOW. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6500
FEET. TOTAL LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
AROUND A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ALONG I-80 TO HALF AN INCH
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LIGHTEST TOTALS OF ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS ACROSS NORTHERN NYE AND SOUTHERN WHITE PINE COUNTIES.
LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM OREGON INTO
THE GREAT BASIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MOISTURE AMOUNTS
DON'T LOOK PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS COMPARED TO
THE CURRENT FEATURE. THIS COMBINED WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION TOTALS ON THE LOWER
SIDE WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW MOSTLY CONFINED TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE
7000 FEET. SNOW LEVELS DROP BELOW 5000 FEET BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW FOR NORTHERN
VALLEYS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. EVEN WITH THAT, 90TH PERCENTILE SNOW
AMOUNTS REMAIN UNDER HALF AN INCH BELOW 7000 FEET.
LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE CLUSTER SCENARIOS BEGIN TO HINT THAT A REX
BLOCK WILL FORM INTO THIS WEEKEND, WITH DISAGREEMENT ON WHEN THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE KICKER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE SUNDAY ACROSS
NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE INCOMING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MIDWEEK PERIOD BEHIND THE CURRENT WEATHER FEATURE. LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT WITH A 15% CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS THE I-80
CORRIDOR IN NORTHERN NEVADA. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE FOR DRIER CONDITIONS WITH A REX BLOCK PATTERN KEEPING
PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. 15% OF THE LONG
RANGE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN EARLIER WITH INCREASED
RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEVADA BY NEXT SUNDAY.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS 10KT OR LESS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL SITES EXCEPT KELY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. KELY IS EXPECTED
TO SEE A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AROUND 20KT DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON TODAY BEFORE DYING DOWN AGAIN AFTER A FEW HOURS. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE AT KWMC/KBAM/KEKO/KENV BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD AND AS A RESULT ANY LOWERED CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES
ASSOCIATED WITH THEM ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...84
AVIATION...94
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