960
FXUS65 KLKN 032003
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1203 PM PST TUE MAR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1200 PM PST MON MAR 3 2026
* PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING
* INCREASING CHANCES OF ACCUMULATING VALLEY SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING
* BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY RESULTING IN MORE PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO START AS VALLEY RAIN WITH SNOW LEVELS STAYING ABOVE
6500 FEET DUE TO WARMER TEMPERATURES, THEN TRANSITION TO SNOW
OVERNIGHT AS MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP
NOW LEVELS TO 3500-4000 FT. VALLEYS COULD SEE UP TO 0.1 TO 1 INCH
OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH HIGHER PASSES AND SUMMITS SEEING UP TO
1-2 INCHES. MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE MUCH MORE SNOW, UP
TO 3-7 INCHES, UP TO A FOOT FOR RUBY MOUNTAINS. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY AND THE RUBY
MOUNTAINS UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT FROM THE TROUGH
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SPEEDS UP
TO 15-25 MPH, GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40-45 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR CENTRAL NEVADA THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL
START OUT WARM IN THE 50S TO 60S WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE 20S FROM THE PASSING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD
THURSDAY TO BE MUCH COLDER WITH TEMPERATURES UP TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL DURING THE DAY.
FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BEGINS TO CUT-OFF FROM THE MAIN FRONT AND EXTEND TOWARDS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH
WINDS STAYING BREEZY FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AT 10-15 MPH, GUSTS
20-25 MPH. OVER THE WEEKEND, A WARMING TREND RETURNS AS THE CUT-
OFF LOW PUSHES SOUTH AND WARMER PACIFIC AIR MOVES IN, INCREASING
TEMPERATURES UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION BY
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY.
TUESDAY, MODELS ARE SHOWING THE CUT-OFF LOW TO THE SOUTH MOVING
EASTWARD AND BEING ABSORBED INTO THE NEXT TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS
CONUS, HOWEVER DISCREPANCIES ARISE WITH THE EXTENT OF THE TROUGH,
WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER NEVADA WHILE
OTHERS SHOW A MORE ZONAL FLOW. THIS PATTERN WILL BE MONITORED AS
IT APPROACHES AS WEATHER PATTERNS DIFFER DEPENDING ON WHAT THE
OUTCOME IS FOR THE SYSTEMS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF UPPER TROUGH
PUSHING INTO NEVADA PROVIDING PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF VALLEY SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF HIGH WINDS
THURSDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW
CONFIDENCE OF UPPER TROUGH OVER NEVADA NEXT WEEK. ADJUSTED WIND
GRIDS TO REFLECT HIGHER WINDS THURSDAY.
AVIATION
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR
PERIOD WITH SOME LIGHT CLOUD COVERAGE. NEXT WEATHER IMPACT IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND OVERNIGHT
SNOW. HIGH WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-30 KTS, EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER ON
THURSDAY.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM PST THURSDAY
NVZ031-034.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM PST THURSDAY NVZ035-037-040-041.
DISCUSSION...97
AVIATION...97
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