760
FXUS65 KLKN 052302
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1155 AM PST THU MAR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1200 PM PST THU MAR 5 2026
* PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING THEN
DISSIPATING INTO QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS
* STRONG, GUSTY WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY
THROUGH THE EVENING
* WARMING TREND WILL START FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION FROM A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA WILL PUSH
EASTWARD THIS EVENING WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT
THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA WITH THE MAJORITY
AFFECTING MOUNTAINS. HIGH GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING WITH SPEEDS UP TO 20-25 MPH, GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45-50 MPH,
BECOMING LIGHTER OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME PARTS IN
CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NEVADA REMAINING GUSTY UNTIL TOMORROW
MORNING.
AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, A PART OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CUT-OFF AND HEAD SOUTH TOWARDS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO, WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING JUST NORTH OF THE SYSTEM ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST SETTING
UP A WEAK REX BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ON THE WEEKEND
AS A STRONGER ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN BORDER WILL HINDER THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN IS
STILL EXPECTED TO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO NEVADA AS GRADUAL
WARMING BEGINS FRIDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE NEXT WEEK,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
MONDAY.
SHORTLY AFTER THE REX BLOCK FORMS, MODELS SHOWING IT WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE AS THE CUT-OFF LOW PUSHES AND THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. AFTER THAT, IN THE MODELS APPEAR
AS TO WHAT THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK,
WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER NEVADA AS A
LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER NORTHERN CONUS THAT MAY CLIP INTO
NORTHERN NEVADA, WHILE OTHERS SHOW A BUILDING OF A LONG WAVE UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN CONUS. SO FAR, THE BEST CONFIDENCE IN THE
LONG RANGE IS THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA
STAYING ABOVE NORMAL, EVERYTHING ELSE WILL BE FURTHER MONITORED AS
THE WEEK APPROACHES FOR A MORE AGREEABLE OUTCOME.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF WARMING TEMPERATURES RETURNING FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A WEAK REX BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE
WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE NEXT WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK. NO
MAJOR CHANGES WAS MADE TO THE NBM GRIDS.
AVIATION
VCSH CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL DISSIPATE INTO
CALMER WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOOK FOR VFR
DOMINANT CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR
PERIOD. CIG LEVELS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR KTPH, EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND FL040-FL060, WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS AS COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY DROP THE CIG LEVELS EVEN
FURTHER.
NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGEST FACTOR
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS TODAY WITH SPEEDS UP TO 15-20 KTS, AND GUSTS
UP TO 25-30 KTS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY AND BECOMING LIGHTER THIS EVENING EXCEPT FOR KTPH AND
KENV WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHTER NOT UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING.
KENV REMAINS AMD NOT SKED DUE TO COMMUNICATION ISSUES.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING NVZ031-034.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING NVZ035-037-039>041.
DISCUSSION...97
AVIATION...97
FXUS65 KLKN 051128
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
328 AM PST THU MAR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1256 AM PST THU MAR 5 2026
* PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
* STRONG, GUSTY WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY
* WARMING TREND WILL START FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
AVIATION UPDATE
ISSUED AT 327 AM PST THU MAR 5 2026
ADDED AMD NOT SKED TO THE KENV TAF DUE TO COMMUNICATIONS ISSUES.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
RESULTING IN PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS WILL START AT
AROUND 6,500 FEET THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE DROPPING TO THE VALLEY
FLOOR TONIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL FALL THIS
EVENING. HERE ARE PROBABILITIES OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF SNOWFALL
FOR SELECT LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA FROM 4 PM PST
THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 4 PM PST THURSDAY AFTERNOON:
OWYHEE - 87%
JACKPOT - 71%
RUBY LAKE - 69%
LAMOILLE - 68%
JIGGS - 55%
SPRING CREEK - 54%
WELLS - 33%
AUSTIN - 32%
ELKO - 29%
EUREKA - 29%
STRONG, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY. A WIND ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL NEVADA FROM 8 AM PST THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL
7 PM PST THURSDAY EVENING. AN UPPER-LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
FRIDAY. THIS CYCLONE ALOFT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWESTWARD THIS
WEEKEND. FARTHER NORTH, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THIS WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA WILL BE TWELVE TO
FOURTEEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REGARDING PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING VALLEY
SNOW TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REGARDING STRONG, GUSTY WINDS IN CENTRAL NEVADA THURSDAY. MODERATE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN A WARMING TREND FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. NO
DEVIATIONS FROM THE NBM MODEL OUTPUT.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING NVZ031-034.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM PST THIS EVENING
NVZ035-037-039>041.
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...87
FXUS65 KLKN 050856
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1256 AM PST THU MAR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1201 PM PST WED MAR 4 2026
* PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
* STRONG, GUSTY WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY
* WARMING TREND WILL START FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1238 AM PST THU MAR 5 2026
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME. NO UPDATES WERE
NEEDED.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
RESULTING IN PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS WILL START AT
AROUND 6,500 FEET THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE DROPPING TO THE VALLEY
FLOOR TONIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL FALL THIS
EVENING. HERE ARE PROBABILITIES OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF SNOWFALL
FOR SELECT LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA FROM 4 PM PST
THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 4 PM PST THURSDAY AFTERNOON:
OWYHEE - 87%
JACKPOT - 71%
RUBY LAKE - 69%
LAMOILLE - 68%
JIGGS - 55%
SPRING CREEK - 54%
WELLS - 33%
AUSTIN - 32%
ELKO - 29%
EUREKA - 29%
STRONG, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY. A WIND ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL NEVADA FROM 8 AM PST THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL
7 PM PST THURSDAY EVENING. AN UPPER-LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
FRIDAY. THIS CYCLONE ALOFT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWESTWARD THIS
WEEKEND. FARTHER NORTH, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THIS WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA WILL BE TWELVE TO
FOURTEEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REGARDING PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING VALLEY
SNOW TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REGARDING STRONG, GUSTY WINDS IN CENTRAL NEVADA THURSDAY. MODERATE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN A WARMING TREND FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. NO
DEVIATIONS FROM THE NBM MODEL OUTPUT.
AVIATION
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN AND NEAR PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR
CONDITIONS IS NOT LARGE ENOUGH TO PLACE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS
AT THIS TIME. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AT
KWMC, KENV, AND KTPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING NVZ031-034.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM PST THIS EVENING
NVZ035-037-039>041.
DISCUSSION...86/87
AVIATION...87
FXUS65 KLKN 051955
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1155 AM PST THU MAR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1256 AM PST THU MAR 5 2026
* PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING THEN
DISSIPATING INTO QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS
* STRONG, GUSTY WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY
THROUGH THE EVENING
* WARMING TREND WILL START FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION FROM A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA WILL PUSH
EASTWARD THIS EVENING WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT
THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA WITH THE MAJORITY
AFFECTING MOUNTAINS. HIGH GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING WITH SPEEDS UP TO 20-25 MPH, GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45-50 MPH,
BECOMING LIGHTER OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME PARTS IN
CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NEVADA REMAINING GUSTY UNTIL TOMORROW
MORNING.
AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, A PART OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CUT-OFF AND HEAD SOUTH TOWARDS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO, WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING JUST NORTH OF THE SYSTEM ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST SETTING
UP A WEAK REX BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ON THE WEEKEND
AS A STRONGER ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN BORDER WILL HINDER THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN IS
STILL EXPECTED TO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO NEVADA AS GRADUAL
WARMING BEGINS FRIDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE NEXT WEEK,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
MONDAY.
SHORTLY AFTER THE REX BLOCK FORMS, MODELS SHOWING IT WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE AS THE CUT-OFF LOW PUSHES AND THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. AFTER THAT, IN THE MODELS APPEAR
AS TO WHAT THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK,
WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER NEVADA AS A
LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER NORTHERN CONUS THAT MAY CLIP INTO
NORTHERN NEVADA, WHILE OTHERS SHOW A BUILDING OF A LONG WAVE UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN CONUS. SO FAR, THE BEST CONFIDENCE IN THE
LONG RANGE IS THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA
STAYING ABOVE NORMAL, EVERYTHING ELSE WILL BE FURTHER MONITORED AS
THE WEEK APPROACHES FOR A MORE AGREEABLE OUTCOME.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF WARMING TEMPERATURES RETURNING FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A WEAK REX BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE
WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE NEXT WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK. NO
MAJOR CHANGES WAS MADE TO THE NBM GRIDS.
AVIATION
VCSH CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL DISSIPATE INTO
CALMER WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOOK FOR VFR
DOMINANT CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR
PERIOD. CIG LEVELS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR KTPH, EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND FL040-FL060, WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS AS COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY DROP THE CIG LEVELS EVEN
FURTHER.
NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGEST FACTOR
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS TODAY WITH SPEEDS UP TO 15-20 KTS, AND GUSTS
UP TO 25-30 KTS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY AND BECOMING LIGHTER THIS EVENING EXCEPT FOR KTPH AND
KENV WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHTER NOT UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING.
KENV REMAINS AMD NOT SKED DUE TO COMMUNICATION ISSUES.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING NVZ031-034.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING NVZ035-037-039>041.
DISCUSSION...97
AVIATION...97
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