743
FXUS65 KLKN 070833
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1233 AM PST SAT MAR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* REX BLOCK PATTERN WILL FORM OVER THE WEEKEND
* WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA DURING THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEK
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1226 AM PST SAT MAR 7 2026
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: LOW PRESSURE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN GIVING
US PERIODS OF RAIN IS NOW EAST OF NEVADA, LEAVING BEHIND COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE STATE WITH MUCH DRIER AIR. THERE WILL
STILL BE SOME BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AT TIMES WITH SPEEDS UP TO
10-15 MPH, GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-35 MPH AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
TO CALMER WINDS TONIGHT (TONOPAH STILL EXPECTED TO HAVE BREEZY
WINDS). GRADUAL WARMING OF TEMPERATURES RETURN ACROSS THE REGION
STARTING TODAY, AND WARMING INTO THE 60S BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EASTWARD, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO SPLIT, FORMING A CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME
TIME, AN UPPER RIDGE OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL STRENGTHEN,
EXTENDING ITS REACH INTO THE WESTERN CONUS, WHICH WILL FORM A REX
BLOCK PATTERN. THE REX BLOCK IS GOING TO BE WEAK HOWEVER AS THE
UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO FULLY STRENGTHEN
INTO THE UNITED STATES AS A STRONGER ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
BORDER WILL HINDER ITS GROWTH, AND THUS THE PATTERN WILL BE SHORT
LIVED, DISSIPATING BY TUESDAY. THE POSITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL HOWEVER PUSH WARMER AIR INTO NEVADA, KEEPING WARMER
TEMPERATURES UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
REGION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, STAYING TO A MORE
WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA.
MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT WITH WEATHER PATTERNS FOR
NEXT WEEK, SHOWING A SLIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER NEVADA AFTER
THE REX BLOCK PATTERN DISSIPATES. THIS PATTERN MAY BRING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHERN NEVADA TUESDAY PUTTING HIGHS IN THE 50S,
BUT BEYOND THE DISCREPANCIES BEGIN TO APPEAR AGAIN WITH A SPLIT
IN MODELS OF SEEING A LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE OR A LONG WAVE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS. MAIN CONSENSUS IS STILL THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK IN CENTRAL NEVADA WITH SOME
BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF BREEZY
AFTERNOON WINDS, DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
WARMING TEMPERATURE TRENDS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A WEAK REX BLOCK PATTERN FORMING OVER THE
WEEKEND. MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER NEVADA
NEXT WEEK. HIGH CONFIDENCE WARMER TEMPERATURES REMAIN INTO NEXT
WEEK. NO CHANGES TO FORECAST GRIDS AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR
PERIOD. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY AT 10-15 KTS, GUSTS 20-25 KTS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BELOW 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
EXCEPT FOR KTPH STAYING AROUND 10-15 KTS. CIG LEVELS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LEVELS REACHING BETWEEN FL150 AND
FL200. BY THE EVENING INTO NEXT MORNING, MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS WHICH MAY DROP CIG LEVELS TO FL060. LOOK
FOR LIGHTER WINDS AND DRIER WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...86/97
AVIATION...97
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