765
FXUS65 KLKN 221926
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1226 PM PDT SUN MAR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* RECORD TO NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEVADA EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
* DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS ARE MIGRATING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA AT THIS TIME. WINDS
ARE OCCASIONALLY BREEZY BUT SPEEDS REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. LOOK FOR A QUIET NIGHT THIS EVENING WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
MODELS ARE DEPICTING A STRENGTHENING OF THE EAST PACIFIC UPPER
RIDGE BEGINNING MONDAY. HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING SLOWLY IN THE SHORT
TERM, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE FORECAST AREA. SOME LOCALES WILL SEE ADDITIONAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS SET THIS WEEK AS WELL AND THESE WILL BE
COVERED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S. HERE
ARE SOME PROBABILITIES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 75
DEGREES FOR SELECT LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA ON
MONDAY:
AUSTIN - 0%
BATTLE MOUNTAIN - 85%
ELKO - 70%
ELY - 60%
EUREKA - 15%
JACKPOT - 20%
JARBIDGE - 0%
OWYHEE - 10%
RUTH - 10%
SPRING CREEK - 20%
TONOPAH - 96%
WELLS - 35%
WEST WENDOVER - 50%
WILDHORSE RES - 0%
WINNEMUCCA - 45%
LOOK FOR QUIET WEATHER DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S
AND 40S AND LIGHT WINDS.
ON TUESDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE AT ITS MAXIMUM
EXTENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS MEANS ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. WINDS
WILL AGAIN BE BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. HERE ARE SOME
PROBABILITIES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 80 DEGREES FOR
SELECT LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA FOR TUESDAY:
AUSTIN - 0%
BATTLE MOUNTAIN - 75%
ELKO - 65%
ELY - 35%
EUREKA - 10%
JACKPOT - 20%
JARBIDGE - 0%
OWYHEE - 1%
RUTH - 0%
SPRING CREEK - 25%
TONOPAH - 75%
WELLS - 30%
WEST WENDOVER - 75%
WILDHORSE RES - 0%
WINNEMUCCA - 45%
DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH LIGHT WINDS.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AND BE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO. AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEVADA WITH WESTERLY WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. WITH RESPECT TO AFTERNOON HIGHS, IT IS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO BE A REPEAT OF TUESDAY WITH READINGS IN THE
70S TO LOW 80S. HERE ARE SOME PROBABILITIES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
GREATER THAN 80 DEGREES FOR SELECT LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA FOR WEDNESDAY:
AUSTIN - 5%
BATTLE MOUNTAIN - 75%
ELKO - 70%
ELY - 50%
EUREKA - 35%
JACKPOT - 25%
JARBIDGE - 3%
OWYHEE - 10%
RUTH - 5%
SPRING CREEK - 45%
TONOPAH - 50%
WELLS - 50%
WEST WENDOVER - 85%
WILDHORSE RES - 1%
WINNEMUCCA - 25%
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 30S AND 40S.
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITH A WEST TO EAST FLOW
DOMINATING NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA FOR THURSDAY. A RATHER
DISTINCT COOLDOWN IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY WITH AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S. THOUGH THIS COOLDOWN IS
EXPECTED TO BRING READINGS TEN TO FIFTEEN DEGREES LOWER THAN
WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS, IT IS STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. WINDS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY BREEZY WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH. LOOK FOR QUIET AND DRY TO CONTINUE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.
ON FRIDAY, MODELS ARE SHOWING WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST
BUT CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AND WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
IT CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER UNEVENTFUL FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
REMAINS VERY HIGH. ONLY CHANGE MADE WAS TO THE SHORT TERM WINDS,
USING A ONE TO TWO BLEND OF NBM 90TH PERCENTILE AND REGULAR NBM
FORECAST.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. LOOK FOR OCCASIONAL BREEZY NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE.
CLIMATE
RECORDS CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
AND THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE NO DIFFERENT. MOST RECORDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN BY 5-10 DEGREES. HERE IS THE CURRENT ROUND
OF FORECAST VERSUS RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES (INCLUDING THE YEAR
THEY WERE SET) FOR MARCH 23-25:
MARCH 23:
KEKO: 72/1998 74
KELY: 71/2004 76
KP68: 72/2004 75
KTPH: 76/1998 81
KWMC: 77/1960 75
MARCH 24:
KEKO: 72/1956 80
KELY: 72/1908 80
KP68: 71/2022 81
KTPH: 75/2022 84
KWMC: 76/2022 81
MARCH 25:
KEKO: 77/2022 80
KELY: 74/2022 82
KP68: 76/2022 82
KTPH: 79/2022 83
KWMC: 80/2022 79
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...86
CLIMATE...86
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