667
FXUS65 KLKN 230706 AAA
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1206 AM PDT MON MAR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* RECORD WARMTH IS EXPECTED IN MOST OF OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA EACH AFTERNOON TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
* DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1206 AM PDT MON MAR 23 2026
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: MODELS ARE DEPICTING A STRENGTHENING OF
THE EAST PACIFIC UPPER RIDGE TODAY. HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING SLOWLY IN
THE SHORT TERM, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST AREA. SOME LOCALES WILL SEE ADDITIONAL
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS SET THIS WEEK AS WELL AND THESE WILL BE
COVERED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25
MPH, WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S. HERE
ARE SOME PROBABILITIES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 75 DEGREES
FOR SELECT LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY:
AUSTIN - 0%
BATTLE MOUNTAIN - 85%
ELKO - 70%
ELY - 60%
EUREKA - 15%
JACKPOT - 20%
JARBIDGE - 0%
OWYHEE - 10%
RUTH - 10%
SPRING CREEK - 20%
TONOPAH - 96%
WELLS - 35%
WEST WENDOVER - 50%
WILDHORSE RES - 0%
WINNEMUCCA - 45%
LOOK FOR QUIET WEATHER DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S
AND 40S AND LIGHT WINDS.
ON TUESDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE AT ITS MAXIMUM
EXTENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS MEANS ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. WINDS
WILL AGAIN BE BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH, WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. HERE ARE SOME
PROBABILITIES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 80 DEGREES FOR
SELECT LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TUESDAY:
AUSTIN - 0%
BATTLE MOUNTAIN - 75%
ELKO - 65%
ELY - 35%
EUREKA - 10%
JACKPOT - 20%
JARBIDGE - 0%
OWYHEE - 1%
RUTH - 0%
SPRING CREEK - 25%
TONOPAH - 75%
WELLS - 30%
WEST WENDOVER - 75%
WILDHORSE RES - 0%
WINNEMUCCA - 45%
DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH LIGHT WINDS.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AND BE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO. AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA, WITH WESTERLY WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH, WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. WITH RESPECT TO AFTERNOON HIGHS, IT IS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY TO BE A REPEAT OF TUESDAY WITH READINGS IN THE 70S TO LOW
80S. HERE ARE SOME PROBABILITIES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN
80 DEGREES FOR SELECT LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA
FOR WEDNESDAY:
AUSTIN - 5%
BATTLE MOUNTAIN - 75%
ELKO - 70%
ELY - 50%
EUREKA - 35%
JACKPOT - 25%
JARBIDGE - 3%
OWYHEE - 10%
RUTH - 5%
SPRING CREEK - 45%
TONOPAH - 50%
WELLS - 50%
WEST WENDOVER - 85%
WILDHORSE RES - 1%
WINNEMUCCA - 25%
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 30S AND 40S.
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE, WITH WEST TO EAST FLOW DOMINATING
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THURSDAY. A RATHER DISTINCT COOL DOWN IS
LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S AND 70S. THOUGH THIS COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED TO BRING READINGS TEN
TO FIFTEEN DEGREES LOWER THAN WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS, IT IS STILL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WINDS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY BREEZY,
WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH. LOOK FOR QUIET AND
DRY TO CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.
ON FRIDAY, MODELS ARE SHOWING WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST,
BUT CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AND WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
IT CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER UNEVENTFUL FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
REMAINS VERY HIGH. ONLY CHANGE MADE WAS TO THE SHORT TERM WINDS,
USING A ONE TO TWO BLEND OF NBM 90TH PERCENTILE AND REGULAR NBM
FORECAST.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. LOOK FOR OCCASIONAL BREEZY NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY, WITH GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE.
CLIMATE
RECORDS CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA AND THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE NO DIFFERENT. MOST RECORDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN BY 5-10 DEGREES. HERE IS THE CURRENT ROUND OF FORECAST VERSUS
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES (INCLUDING THE YEAR THEY WERE SET) FOR
MARCH 23-25:
MARCH 23:
KEKO: 72/1998 74
KELY: 71/2004 76
KP68: 72/2004 75
KTPH: 76/1998 81
KWMC: 77/1960 75
MARCH 24:
KEKO: 72/1956 80
KELY: 72/1908 80
KP68: 71/2022 81
KTPH: 75/2022 84
KWMC: 76/2022 81
MARCH 25:
KEKO: 77/2022 80
KELY: 74/2022 82
KP68: 76/2022 82
KTPH: 79/2022 83
KWMC: 80/2022 79
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...86
CLIMATE...86
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