415
FXUS65 KLKN 250803
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
103 AM PDT WED MAR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* RECORD WARMTH IS EXPECTED IN MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA
THRU THE WEEKEND
* STRONG WINDS OVER NORTHERN NV EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON
* DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THRU THE WEEKEND
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1249 AM PDT WED MAR 25 2026
THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES WERE
REQUIRED.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: THE HISTORIC HEAT WAVE CONTINUES FOR
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV THIS WEEK. THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
RESPONSIBLE FOR HOT HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
REMAINS ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS KEEPS NV MAINLY
IN WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM. IN RESPONSE TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT MONDAY ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE SETTING DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALL
CLIMATE SITES IN THE REGION.
A TIGHTENING ZONAL PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE
SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL ENHANCE THE WIND
PROFILE OVER NORTHERN NV TODAY AND THURSDAY. A VERY SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN SAID FLOW WILL ADD SOME DYNAMICAL FORCING TO
AID IN WIND PRODUCTION THOUGH THE BULK OF ENERGY WITH THE WAVE
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE STATE. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20
MPH MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE THESE SPEEDS ARE CURRENTLY SHORT OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA FUTURE MODEL RUNS SHOULD BE SCRUTINIZED FOR INCREASE TO
CRITERIA LEVEL WINDS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK LONG-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFYING JUST OFF THE WEST COAST FINALLY BREAKING
THE STAGNANT HOT PATTERN CURRENTLY PLAGUING THE REGION. BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
FINALLY IMPACTING THE REGION BY MID WEEK OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN
PROLONGED HEAT WAVE AND RECORD BREAKING POSSIBILITIES REGARDING
HIGH TEMPERATURES. MODERATE CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN STRONGER WINDS
IMPACTING NORTHERN NV EACH OF THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS. NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO GRIDS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTS FOR
TERMINALS KWMC, KBAM, KEKO, AND KELY WILL RANGE BETWEEN 20-30KTS
BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET BOTH EVENINGS.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...92
AVIATION...92
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