091
FXUS65 KLKN 261909
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1209 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* STRONG WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING DUST OVER NORTHERN
NV ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
* RECORD BREAKING HEAT RETURNS TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV THIS
WEEKEND
* CHANGE IN WEATHER PATTERN MEANS THE RETURN OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE REGION NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: IN THE NEAR TERM, THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE SW CONUS WILL
SLOWLY MEANDER AND DEAMPLIFY THROUGH LATE WEEK. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IN
ITS BROAD NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN SAID FLOW WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ON
FRIDAY BUT NOT BEFORE INFLUENCING STRONGER SURFACE WINDS THURSDAY
EVENING. STRONGER WINDS COMBINED WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION ARE LEADING TO BLOWING DUST IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS AS VIEWED
ON SATELLITE.
LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE WESTERN
FLANK OF THE RETREATING HPC OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL AGAIN
DRIVE HIGH TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S AND 80S ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV THREATENING HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
MULTIPLE CLIMATE SITES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE SW CONUS WILL SHIFT
AS THE HPC TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST RELEASES ITS FIRM GRIP ON THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW A PROGRESSIVE WAVE PATTERN TO SET UP WITH
THE FIRST OF 2 ULTS PUSHING INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY MONDAY PM.
NOTICEABLE CLOUD COVER BEGINS MONDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND
MOISTURE INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE SYSTEM ENCROACHES ON THE AREA. CURRENT LONG RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH TUESDAY BEING THE WETTEST DAY
FOR THE AREA IN THE FORM OF VALLEY RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW. SNOW LEVELS
WILL STAY ABOVE 7000 FEET WITH THE FIRST WAVE MAKING IT A MAINLY
RAIN EVENT. AFTER THE FIRST WAVE AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY PASSAGE
LATE TUESDAY THE SECOND WAVE WILL IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. CURRENT GUIDANCE KEEPS BETTER MOISTURE OVER
NORTHERN NV THAN CENTRAL NV WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SNOW LEVELS ARE
CURRENTLY MUCH LOWER BEHIND THE THURSDAY SYSTEM BOUNDARY. CURRENT
GUIDANCE IS LESS CONSISTENT WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM AND WILL
REQUIRE FUTURE MODEL RUNS FOR BETTER CLARITY ON TIMING AND AMOUNTS
OF PRECIPITATION.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN STRONG
BREEZES AND POTENTIAL BLOWING DUST FOR THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR RECORD BREAKING HEAT THIS WEEKEND. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TIMING AND AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH
PROGRESSIVE WAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED IN
GRIDS AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WIND GUSTS AT ALL
TERMINALS WILL RANGE 18-30KTS. LIGHTER GUSTS OF 18-20KTS AT KBAM
AND KEKO WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. STRONGER GUSTS OF 25-30KTS AT
KWMC, KTPH, KELY, AND KENV WILL ALSO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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