874
FXUS65 KLKN 302002
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
102 PM PDT THU APR 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WARMING TREND THROUGH SUNDAY
* STRONG, GUSTY SOUTH WINDS IN CENTRAL NEVADA THIS WEEKEND
* WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
SPARKING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN EASTERN NEVADA. THESE SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND SHORT LIVED, ALTHOUGH THERE IS ABOUT
A 10% CHANCE FOR THEM TO PRODUCE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DIE OUT AFTER SUNSET AND THE
TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. WEAK RIDGING WILL TAKE ITS
PLACE, ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND THAT WILL SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S FOR THIS WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST DURING THIS PERIOD AND
LOOKS TO MOVE ONSHORE LATE SUNDAY. INITIAL IMPACTS WILL BE FELT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH IN
CENTRAL NEVADA AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
THEME FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH SHOWER CHANCES
HOVERING AROUND 50-70% THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON. SOME SHOWERS MAY
HAVE SOME SNOW MIX IN AT VERY HIGH ELEVATIONS, BUT SNOW LEVELS
REMAIN WELL ABOVE 8000 FEET DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE DAY WITH
THE HEAVIEST LIQUID ACCUMULATION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE
MONDAY. THE LOW BEGINS TO EXIT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH A
FEW FINAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY CAN’T BE RULED OUT
FOR WEDNESDAY. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, HOWEVER THIS IS CURRENTLY A HIGH
VARIANCE, LOW CONFIDENCE SOLUTION.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WARMING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN BREEZY
TO GUSTY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY, AND WET CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT
ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH TWO EXCEPTIONS. FIRST,
KEKO HAS A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH
COULD TEMPORARILY LOWER VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS. SECOND, KWMC IS
EXPECTED TO SEE A WIND INCREASE, GUSTING AROUND 20KT, AROUND 06Z.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...94
AVIATION...94
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