646
FXUS65 KLKN 020846
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
146 AM PDT SAT MAY 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WARMING TREND THRU SUNDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES IN CENTRAL
NEVADA
* WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK
* WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MID-LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 129 AM PDT SAT MAY 2 2026
THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES
ARE REQUIRED.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER OVER NEVADA TODAY WITH THE CONTINUED
WARMING TREND SET TO BRING DAYTIME HIGHS JUST ABOVE NORMAL AND IN
THE 70S. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW EMBEDDED UNDER THE RIDGE AND
POSITIONED ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE ITS WAY
TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER NEVADA WITH SOUTHERLY BREEZES ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON AND GUSTS WILL REACH AS HIGH AS 25-30 MPH.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND AND INTO
THE WESTERN U.S. THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE TO THE AREA, WITH
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASING UP TO 50%. RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH ACCUMULATION AROUND 0.10 INCHES OR LESS.
MOST OF THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL ON MONDAY AS CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE GREATEST ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED WITHIN WEST CENTRAL NEVADA. CHANCES FOR AREAS TO SEE UP
TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN OR GREATER DURING THE DAY ARE AS
FOLLOWS:
AUSTIN: 45%
ELKO: 30%
ELY: 40%
EUREKA: 60%
OWYHEE: 45%
TONOPAH: 25%
WEST WENDOVER: 10%
WINNEMUCCA: 30%
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS CAPE
VALUES CLIMB ABOVE 200 J/KG ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WITH GREATEST
CHANCES ALONG US-93 FROM WELLS TO JACKPOT AS CAPE VALUES REACH UP
TO 300+ J/KG. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE
US-50 CORRIDOR THOUGH CHANCES WILL BE LOWER AT AROUND 20-25% AS
CAPE VALUES ARE A LITTLE BIT LOWER, RESIDING BETWEEN 150-200
J/KG.
TUESDAY, PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MAJORITY
OF RAIN IN CENTRAL NEVADA ALONG THE US-50 CORRIDOR. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES REMAIN UP TO 30% BUT IS NOW MORE CENTRALIZED ALONG US-50.
BY THE AFTERNOON, ACTIVE WEATHER BEGINS TO DISSIPATE AS THE LOW
PUSHES EASTWARD OUT OF THE STATE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE STATE.
WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT
PATTERN OVER NEVADA, LEAVING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND THAT WILL REACH ABOVE NORMAL AND INTO
THE 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
THRU TONIGHT. AFTERNOON SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL BE PRESENT TODAY
WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS OF AROUND 20KT LOCATED AT KELY AND KTPH.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...92
AVIATION...92
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