631
FXUS65 KLKN 030941
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
241 AM PDT SUN MAY 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* PERIODS OF VALLEY RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON, PERSISTING THRU TUESDAY
* THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS
* DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW AND MID 80S BY FRIDAY
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 222 AM PDT SUN MAY 3 2026
THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES
ARE REQUIRED.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY CONTINUE
TO RESIDE WARMER THAN NORMAL, WITH READINGS FIVE TO TEN DEGREES
WARMER THAN SEASONAL VALUES. AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW POSITIONED
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE INLAND TODAY AS
WELL, WHICH WILL BRING PRECIPITATON TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THRU TUESDAY EVENING. PRECIPITAION
TYPE WILL BE VALLEY RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE AROUND 9,000 FEET EARLY MONDAY MORNING, BEFORE DROPPING TO
ABOUT 8,000 FEET MONDAY NIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING. HERE ARE
PROBABILITIES OF ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN OR MORE FOR
LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THRU 5 AM PDT TUESDAY,
MAY 5TH, 2026:
AUSTIN - 81%
SPRING CREEK - 68%
LAMOILLE - 67%
WINNEMUCCA - 61%
ELKO - 58%
TONOPAH - 58%
BATTLE MOUNTAIN - 56%
OWYHEE - 52%
JACKPOT - 51%
EUREKA - 47%
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
SILVER STATE WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY, RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND.
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA WILL BE TEN TO FIFTEEN DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REGARDING UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN PERIODS OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THRU
TUESDAY. MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. MINIMAL DEVIATION FROM THE
NBM MODEL OUTPUT WITH EDITS FOCUSED WITHIN THE POP FIELD WHERE A
BLEND OF VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCES WAS UTILIZED.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THRU
TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL BE PRESENT WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS OF 30KT SITUATED AT KTPH. VCSH AND A LOW CHANCE OF
-TSRA WILL ALSO BE PRESENT AT KTPH THE LATTER HALF OF THIS
AFTERNOON. MAIN THREATS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SH OR TS THAT MOVE ON
TERMINAL WILL BE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND STRONG AND ERRATIC
WIND GUSTS OF 45KT OR MORE.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...92
AVIATION...92
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