925
FXUS65 KLKN 040858
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
158 AM PDT MON MAY 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* PERIODS OF VALLEY RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW CONTINUE THRU
TUESDAY
* THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON
* DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE LOW AND MID 80S BY
FRIDAY
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1228 AM PDT MON MAY 4 2026
THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES
ARE REQUIRED.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE INLAND TODAY AND
TOMORROW RESULTING IN PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION LASTING THRU
TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH AND ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AROUND 8-9000 FEET THRU THE DURATION OF THE EVENT.
THEREFORE EXPECTING MOST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN SAVE FOR
THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN RANGES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT EACH AFTERNOON TODAY
AND TOMORROW AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS
AROUND 45 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FOUND ALONG A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LINE
FROM NORTHWEST NYE COUNTY TO CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY. 0.25 TO 0.50
INCHES OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST THRU TUESDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AS THE LOW EXITS
TO THE EAST AND WEATHER CLEARS THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD
TO DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
AS A RESULT, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO
MID 80S FOR MANY LOCALES BY FRIDAY, ROUGHLY 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE WARMER
THAN NORMAL, RESIDING IN THE 40S AS COMPARED TO NORMAL LOWS THAT
WOULD OTHERWISE BE IN THE 30S.
LOW CONFIDENCE AND LOW PROBABILITY (10%) FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY SATURDAY AS A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TROF EJECTS ACROSS THE PACNW FROM A ROBUST UPPER LEVEL LOW POISED
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. HOWEVER, THE SHORTWAVE WILL EFFECTIVELY
FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND RENDER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 5
DEGREES COOLER THAN OBSERVED FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE RIDGE REAMPLIFYS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
THRU TUESDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE THIS WEEKEND. OPTED FOR A
BLEND OF VARIOUS MODEL OUTPUTS AND WPC GUIDANCE FOR POP AND
WEATHER FIELDS AS NBM CONTINUES TO COME IN MUCH TOO BULLISH.
OTHERWISE LITTLE DEVIATION FROM NBM ELSEWHERE.
AVIATION
PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS
THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME COMBINATION OF -SHRA, VCSH, -TSRA, AND
VCTS IS FORECAST AT TIMES WITH THE GREATEST TS THREAT PRESENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY AND TOMORROW. MAIN THREATS ASSOCIATED
WITH ANY TS THAT MOVE ON TERMINAL WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS AROUND 40KT OR 45KT. THE
PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL BE VFR THOUGH ANY SH OR TS THAT
MOVE ON TERMINAL MAY PRODUCE TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON
BREEZES WILL ALSO BE PRESENT WITH GUSTS 20KT TO 25KT.
FIRE WEATHER
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT
INCLUDING RAIN SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST
RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE FOCUSED IN AND NEAR ZONE 427 WHERE
BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES IS EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH AREAL COVERAGE EFFECTIVELY INCLUDING
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS AGAIN EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH AREAL COVERAGE WILL
BE FOCUSED ALONG A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SWATH THAT WILL MORE OR
LESS EXCLUDE ZONES 437, 426, AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF 425. CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE PRESENT ALONG WITH THE TYPICAL GUSTY
AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS OF AROUND 45 MPH. AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL
ALSO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, GUSTS 20 TO 30 MPH.
FAIRER WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THRU THE END OF THE WEEK THOUGH
AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL PERSIST, PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...92
AVIATION...92
FIRE WEATHER...92
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