646
FXUS65 KLKN 071930
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1230 PM PDT THU MAY 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WARMING TREND WELL UNDERWAY TODAY, AND LAST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK
* HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER MAKER ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN, SIGNALING A PROLONGED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER
* RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE AT SEVERAL AREA CLIMATE
SITES BEGINNING SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
A FAMILIAR PATTERN RETURNS FOR THIS WEEK AS A WARMING TREND KICKS
OFF FOR THE SECOND WEEK OF MAY. A REX BLOCKING PATTERN IS SETTING
UP AGAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST. ALSO CALLED A HIGH OVER LOW, OR
FIGURE 8 BLOCK, THIS PATTERN FEATURES A UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA TOPPED BY A UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL SET UP OVER
THE GREAT BASIN. THE RESULT WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY
CONDITIONS, AND WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR NE NEVADA THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH TO 20 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN STORY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND 80S THROUGH SATURDAY. THEN AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS
AND AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, HIGHS
WILL REACH THE 90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS, WHICH MEANS THAT FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, TEMPERATURES WILL BE APPROACHING, AND MAY EXCEED
RECORD TERRITORY FOR A FEW SPOTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A PERIOD OF NEAR RECORD TO RECORD
HEAT STARTING SATURDAY, AND LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING WITH BREEZY
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10KT TO 20KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT
POSSIBLE. REMNANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GENERATE FEW TO SCT
CONVECTIVE BUILD-UPS FOR KEKO, KELY, AND KENV THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. NO MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FROM THESE BUILD
UPS.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE WEST THIS WEEK
WILL LEAD TO ELEVATING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WARMING TEMPERATURE ARE
FORECAST TO REACH NEAR TO, OR EXCEED RECORD HIGHS BY THE LATE
WEEKEND. BREEZY AFTERNOON WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH, WILL COMBINE WITH THE TEMPERATURES TO
DROP HUMIDITY LEVELS TO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...98
AVIATION...98
FIRE WEATHER...98
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