318
FXUS65 KLKN 231944
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1244 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES 10-20% THROUGH THIS EARLY EVENING AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON
* UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY
* STRONG, GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY
* CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: SKIES HAVE BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO INCREASES IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE.
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH 70S AND 80S FELT BY ALL. SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF US HIGHWAY
50 AND SPREADING NORTHEAST TOWARDS ELKO COUNTY. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES WITH LIMITED RAINFALL OF 0.05 INCHES OR LESS IN THE
VALLEYS. WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM. SKIES
WILL SCATTER OUT DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.
BY MONDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST STATES, WHILE THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
SLIDES TO THE EAST INTO WESTERN ARIZONA. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BUT SIGNS POINT TO A LIMITED AREA OF
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
WITH READINGS IN THE 80S. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY DURING THE
AFTERNOON THOUGH SOME STRONGER GUSTS OF 30 MPH WILL BE FELT ACROSS
HUMBOLDT COUNTY. LOOK FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE PACIFIC COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. AT THIS TIME, THE STRONGEST
WINDS APPEAR ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH WILL SEE
GUSTS TO 35 MPH. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF FIVE HUNDREDTHS OR LESS EXPECTED.
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHEAST TREK DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 6500 AND 7500 FEET THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NIGHT, SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST WITH COLDER AIR
FUNNELING IN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S. BY
WEDNESDAY, SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
REGION WITH HIGHS ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE 50S.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WOBBLE
OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH COOL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. THE
ON AND OFF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW TO
MODERATE IN THE PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH ROUGHLY MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE WITH THE TUESDAY SYSTEM. CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NBM POP
AND WEATHER GRIDS FOR THE SHORT TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF DRY CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. VCTS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. FOR SUNDAY, A WEAK TROUGH AXIS WILL SIT JUST
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOOK FOR A FIFTEEN TO TWENTY PERCENT
PROBABILITY FOR AFTERNOON TS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE KEKO TERMINAL
AFTER 20Z WITH A TEN TO FIFTEEN PERCENT PROBABILITY AT KENV. MAIN
IMPACTS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND OUTFLOW WIND
GUSTS TO 45KT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS TODAY. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET
THIS EVENING. FOR TOMORROW, SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN FIRE ZONES TO
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS (PROBABILITY OF
TEN TO TWENTY PERCENT). MAIN THREATS CONTINUE TO BE CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. BY
MONDAY, AN INCOMING EAST PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES, AIMING TO DIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER, ON MONDAY,
ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS FIRE ZONE 437 AS WIND
SPEEDS GUST TO AROUND 30 MPH WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES HOVERING BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT. THE STRONG WINDS WILL
SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST TUESDAY, WHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS US HIGHWAY 50 IN CENTRAL
NEVADA. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL COOL, THOUGH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT OVER THE
CENTRAL FIRE ZONES. LOOK FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR VALLEY RAIN
SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE MID-WEEK WILL COOL
INTO THE 50S AND 60S.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...86
FIRE WEATHER...86
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page