297
FXUS65 KLKN 131930
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1230 PM PDT SAT JUN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* LOW PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED DRY THUNDER IN CENTRAL NV SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY
* CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WITH RESPECT TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
* HEAT RISK INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEK FOR THOSE SENSITIVE TO WARM
TEMPERATURES
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IN THE BASE OF A LARGE
ULT OVER WEST-CENTRAL CANADA WILL SHIFT TO MORE NORTHWEST FLOW BY
MONDAY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. A LOW LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER
CENTRAL CA IS PROVIDING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND VORTICITY OVER CENTRAL
NV TO PROMOTE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED DRY CONVECTION OVER
NORTHERN NYE AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THOSE LOCATIONS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON (PW INCREASES FROM 0.4 TO NEAR 0.6 INCHES BY THIS
EVENING). LOW PROB CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE DUE TO CAPE VALUES OF
100-300 J/KG AND SUFFICIENT FORCING FROM DIURNAL PROCESSES. SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THE SETUP IS SIMILAR WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER PW VALUES
(0.5 INCREASING TO 0.7 INCHES). CURRENT THINKING IS DRY CONVECTION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO A MIXED BAG OF WET AND
DRY ESPECIALLY IN ELEVATED REGIONS SUCH AS SOUTHEASTERN WHITE PINE
COUNTY AND GREAT BASIN NATIONAL PARK.
BY MONDAY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL HPC OVER THE PACIFIC WILL BEGIN TO
ENCROACH ON THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL CALM WINDS AND DIMINISH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE EARLY WEEK WHILE RAISING AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE. FORECASTED HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S WILL RUN ROUGHLY 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY SEVERAL TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL BE IN JEOPARDY.
HEAT RISK WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THOSE SENSITIVE TO WARM
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
TRUE FOR WEST WENDOVER WHERE OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY AM WILL
STRUGGLE TO FALL BELOW 70.
BEYOND MID WEEK A STRONGER ULT DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC AND
BEGINS TO MIGRATE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL
INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN SOME
ISOLATED DRY CONVECTION OVER NORTHEASTERN NYE AND WHITE PINE
COUNTIES TODAY. SHRINK, STRETCH, TAPER WAS APPLIED TO POPS GRIDS
BETWEEN 20 AND 04Z THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AS NBM
CONTINUES TO BE SUBPAR FORECASTING DRY THUNDER. COVERAGE OF
ISOLATED DRY THUNDER IS CURRENTLY NOT GREAT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WHEN BETTER MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SLIGHTLY BETTER SETUP FOR
CONVECTION THAN SATURDAY. INCREASING CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR
BUILDING HEAT AND HEATRISK THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEIR EXISTS A LOW
PROBABILITY OF VCTS FOR KTPH AND KELY THROUGH LATE EVENING HOURS.
WINDS IN AND AROUND ANY STORMS THAT DO OCCUR WILL BE BRIEFLY GUSTY
AND ERRATIC. SATURDAY AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AT KWMC, KEKO, KTPH,
AND KBAM WILL RANGE 20-25KTS BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.
STRONGER WINDS WILL REMAIN FOR KWMC THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 425/426/427. SUNDAY AFTERNOON
STORMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A MIX OF WET AND DRY BY LATER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE
REGION. GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL SEND AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS ALL FIRE WEATHER ZONES
THROUGH MID WEEK OF NEXT WEEK.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99
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