043
FXUS65 KLKN 142006
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
106 PM PDT SUN JUN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* LOW PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED DRY THUNDER IN CENTRAL NV THROUGH
THIS EVENING
* WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK
* HEAT RISK INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEK FOR THOSE SENSITIVE TO WARM
TEMPERATURES
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL IS PRESENT THROUGH THIS EVENING IN WHITE PINE AND
NORTHERN NYE COUNTIES. THIS CONVECTIVE SETUP IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR
A MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS WITH PW VALUES AROUND 0.5 TO
0.7 INCHES. CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD DUE TO
CAPE VALUES MAXING OUT AROUND 300 J/KG, BUT COMBINED WITH DIURNAL
HEATING OR TERRAIN FORCING MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A STRONG STORM OR
TWO. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER
THE WEST BEGINNING TOMORROW WHICH WILL CALM WINDS AND SUPPRESS ANY
REMAINING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THURSDAY, OR
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH UNUSUALLY WARM OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO CREATE A
POTENTIAL THREAT FOR THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE FOR THE WEST WENDOVER AREA WHERE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO REMAIN ABOVE 65 DEGREES FOR THE NEXT WEEK, INCLUDING ONE NIGHT
THAT WILL LIKELY FAIL TO DROP BELOW 70. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
OUTSIDE THIS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE UPPER TROUGH MENTIONED IN YESTERDAY’S AFTERNOON
FORECAST HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT AND NOW LOOKS TO IMPACT THE WEST
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL, AS WELL AS BREAKING THE HEAT
AND DECREASING TEMPERATURES BETWEEN FIVE AND TEN DEGREES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN ISOLATED
MIXED CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN NYE AND WHITE PINE TODAY. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS THIS WEEK. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TROUGH TIMING BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE IMPACTS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO POPS TODAY TO
BETTER DEPICT ISOLATED DRY THUNDER POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY EVENING BREEZES OUT OF THE WNW WITH
GUSTS RANGING 18-22KTS. ARE FORECAST FOR TERMINALS KWMC, KEKO,
KELY, & KBAM. KTPH WIND DIRECTION WILL BE WSW GUSTING TO 18KTS.
VCTS IS ANTICIPATED FOR KELY AND KPTH TERMINALS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
UNTIL ACTIVITY DIMINISHES AFTER SUNSET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISOLATED DRY TO MIXED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ZONES 425/426/427. CONDITIONS THIS WEEK
WILL BE HOT AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S ACROSS ALL ZONES.
POTENTIAL WIND DRIVEN ENHANCED CONDITIONS ARE ALSO BEING WATCHED
IN ELKO COUNTY ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AND IN CENTRAL NEVADA ON
FRIDAY.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...94
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...94
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