486
FXUS65 KLKN 151911
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1211 PM PDT MON JUN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* PLEASANT WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND TO START THE WEEK
* HEAT RISK INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEK FOR THOSE SENSITIVE TO WARM
TEMPERATURES
* INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND INCREASES CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND PRECIPITATION
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC
WILL MIGRATE AND BROADEN EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL EXACERBATE A WARMING TREND ALREADY OCCURRING
THAT WILL PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS THIS WEEK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S
THROUGH THURSDAY. SEVERAL TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL BE AT RISK
ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NV. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON
HEATRISK WITH THE LATEST RUN. BOTH PROBABILISTIC AND DETERMINISTIC
HEATRISK SOLUTIONS HAVE REDUCED IN PERCENTAGE CHANCE AND INDEX
VALUE, RESPECTIVELY. WHILE NO HEAT PRODUCTS ARE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME CAUTION SHOULD STILL BE MESSAGED AND TAKEN FOR THOSE
SENSITIVE TO WARM TEMPERATURES AND HEAT RELATED ILLNESS.
THE HPC GETS SQUEEZED SOUTHEASTWARD LATER THIS WEEK AS A ULT
DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC AND BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN
CONUS REPLACING THE HIGH AND RIDGE OVER THE AREA. THE EASTERN
FLANK OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT AND INCREASE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO
SOUTHERLY. WHILE SPEEDS DO INCREASE RELATIVE TO THE STAGNANT
REGIME OF THE HIGH, WINDS WILL FALL BELOW CRITERIA FOR A
HOT/DRY/WINDY SETUP.
THE RISK WITH THIS INCOMING SYSTEM WILL BE DRY THUNDER. THE
MOISTURE REGIME OVER THE AREA IS DRY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LONG
TERM GUIDANCE INCREASES RH AND PW OVER MAINLY NORTHERN NV BY
FRIDAY PM. A MARKED INCREASE IN CAPE (250-500 J/KG) OVER THE AREA
TAKES PLACE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS IS
EVIDENCED BY A RANGE OF 0.6-0.8 FOR CAPE SHEAR IN EURO EFI FROM
00Z SAT TO 00Z SUN WITH A NEGLIGIBLE SHIFT OF TAILS. THIS IS ALSO
COLLOCATED WITH LIS OF 0 TO -2 FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THE EVOLUTION OF MOISTURE WITH THE CURRENT MODEL RUN SUGGESTS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY THUNDER OVER NORTHERN NV EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO MORE WET AND DRY FRIDAY NIGHT. A
WEAK BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM DRAGS THROUGH THE STATE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE INCREASE IN DYNAMIC FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH A BRIEF SURGE IN
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY YIELDS A RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OF A TRACE
TO 0.15 INCHES MAINLY FOR NORTHERN NV. THE MOISTURE PROFILE IS NOT
AS ROBUST OVER CENTRAL NV WHERE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN MORE DRY
THAN WET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.05-0.1 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF US-50 ON SATURDAY.
THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION QUICKLY BY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN ZONAL
FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE WEATHER PATTERN
APPEARS TO ENTER A QUIET PERIOD INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR A
WARMING TREND THAT WILL INCREASE HEATRISK ACROSS THE CWA THIS
WEEK. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
THUNDER FRIDAY PM AND SATURDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND. NO
MAJOR GRID CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS BELOW 10KT EXPECTED AT ALL
SITES EXCEPT KELY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. KELY WILL SEE SOME
AFTERNOON BREEZY WINDS UP TO 20KT THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DIE DOWN BY
THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK KEEPS A LID
ON STRONGER WIND SPEEDS AND ANY HOT/DRY/WINDY SETUP FOR ALL FIRE
WEATHER ZONES. THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST SHIFTS TO INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN RFW DRY THUNDER FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OF
THIS WEEK ACROSS ALL FIRE WEATHER ZONES. NORTHERN ZONES ARE
FORECAST TO SEE A CHANGEOVER TO MORE WET THAN DRY FRIDAY NIGHT
WHILE CENTRAL NV ZONES WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DRY THUNDER INTO
SATURDAY WITH ONLY HIGHEST ELEVATIONS RECEIVING APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL. THIS SETUP WILL NEED TO BE MESSAGED AND MONITORED AS IT
EVOLVES THROUGH FUTURE MODEL RUNS.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...94
FIRE WEATHER...99
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