495
FXUS65 KLKN 162010
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
110 PM PDT TUE JUN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S THROUGH WEDNESDAY
* HEAT RISK INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEK FOR THOSE SENSITIVE TO WARM
TEMPERATURES
* INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND INCREASES CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE CONTINUING
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEVADA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SIT
OVER THE WEST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DICTATE THE
WEATHER OVER NEVADA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY, ALLOWING SOME INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IN CENTRAL NEVADA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS A RESULT. THUNDER
POTENTIAL INCREASES FOR FRIDAY, WITH A QUICK MOVING TROUGH
BEGINNING ITS PASSAGE OVER THE WEST. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO 0.6-0.8
INCHES BY SATURDAY WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES IN NORTHERN NEVADA.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN A MIXED OR TRANSITION STYLE EVENT WITH A
COMBINATION OF DRY AND WET THUNDERSTORMS STARTING LATE MORNING ON
FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. NO STORMS
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY BUT A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN THE
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE COULD EASILY CHANGE THAT. TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER AS A RESULT OF THE TROUGH.
MODEL SPREAD INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY STARTING SUNDAY BUT THE
CURRENT FAVORED SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING EITHER ZONAL OR RIDGED UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TO START NEXT WEEK. BOTH OPTIONS WOULD RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY OF THE
WARMING TREND IS STILL IN QUESTION.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED
HIGH PRESSURE AND WARM AND QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING THUNDER ON THURSDAY AS WELL AS
THE SPLIT OF WET AND DRY THUNDER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THUNDER
COVERAGE WAS INCREASED ON THURSDAY AS BASE NBM OUTPUT WAS TOO
LIMITED.
AVIATION
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25KT EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THIS
AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY
AND TOMORROW DUE TO EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED
AFTERNOON WINDS AROUND 25 MPH. INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
FOR THURSDAY MAY SPARK A FEW ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN ZONES
425/426/427. MIXED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN
NORTHERN NEVADA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WHILE INCREASING WINDS IN
CENTRAL NEVADA MAY LEAD TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY. STORMS
EXIT FOR SUNDAY, LEAVING COOLER BUT WARMING CONDITIONS. ANY RH
INCREASES DUE TO THIS SYSTEM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PERSIST BEYOND
MONDAY.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...94
AVIATION...94
FIRE WEATHER...94
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