442
FXUS65 KLKN 201920
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1220 PM PDT SAT JUN 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE 80S TODAY
* INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM INCREASES CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH TODAY MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH
* WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 90S FOR ALL LOCATIONS
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ALL OF NORTHERN NEVADA,
WITH CAPE VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 150-400 J/KG AND PWAT VALUES
ABOVE 0.5-0.6 INCHES. THE ONLY CAVEAT IS THAT STORM MOTION IS HIGH
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS UP TO 20-25 KTS.
THIS EFFECTS THE RESIDENCE TIME STORMS WILL HAVE OVERHEAD, MAKING
PRECIPITATION VERY LIGHT IN AREAS WHICH WILL TREND TO A MORE
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM CONDITION. COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TO
50S. LOOK FOR THE WEATHER TO QUIET DOWN DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
SUNDAY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK, LOOK FOR QUIET AND DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS EACH DAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WARM BACK INTO THE
90S ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: SEVERAL CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE
NBM GRIDS AGAIN IN THE NEAR TERM DUE TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
THESE INCLUDE MODIFYING THE POP/WX/POPTHUNDER GRIDS SO THAT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WERE BETTER REFLECTED FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL
NEVADA, HOWEVER MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND TIMING OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY QUIET AND WARMING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOUR
PERIOD, HOWEVER PERIODS OF VCTS POSSIBLE OVER ALL TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR KTPH. EXPECTING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS FROM
ANY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW OF UP TO 45 KTS OR GREATER ALONG WITH
BRIEF TSRA CONDITIONS. MVFR CONDITIONS OR LOWER MAY RESULT FROM
PASSING STORMS. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS UP TO 10-15 KTS, GUSTS
20-25 KTS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
KWMC REMAIN AMD NOT SKED DUE TO COMMUNICATIONS ISSUES.
FIRE WEATHER
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL NORTHEASTERN
ZONES AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. DESPITE LOW CLOUD BASES AND PWAT VALUES
ABOVE 0.5 INCHES, THE SPEED OF THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
FAST ACROSS THE REGION, MITIGATING THE EFFECTS OF PRECIPITATION.
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING STRONG
GUSTY ERRATIC WIND GUSTS OVER 55 MPH. WEATHER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT, LEAVING DRY AND QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS
WITH GRADUAL WARMING TEMPERATURES THAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALL
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 900 AM PDT TODAY THROUGH 500 PM PDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NVZ438-469-470
DISCUSSION...97
AVIATION...97
FIRE WEATHER...97
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