192
FXUS65 KLKN 211936
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1236 PM PDT SUN JUN 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WARMING TREND WILL CREATE MODERATE HEATRISK THIS WEEK
* HOT, DRY, WINDY FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY
* SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: ZONAL FLOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY WEEK WITH A ULT OVER WEST CENTRAL CANADA
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND A BUILDING HPC OVER NORTHERN MEXICO TO
THE SOUTH. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GAIN A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AND
REMAIN WSW OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE WEEK DUE TO A SHORT
WAVE MEANDERING OFF THE CA COAST. TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL
TREND UPWARD A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S
ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL CREATE MODERATE HEAT RISK
FOR THE REGION EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE HEAT
PRODUCTS ARE UNLIKELY, THOSE SENSITIVE TO HOT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
TAKE PRECAUTION TO AVOID HEAT RELATED ILLNESS.
SOME DIURNAL FORCING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD TAP INTO SOME
INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA PARTICULARLY IN NORTHEASTERN NV.
CURRENT GUIDANCE KEEPS PWAT VALUES (0.4-0.5 INCHES) A BIT TOO LOW
FOR NOTHING MORE THAN BUILDS UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS SLIGHTLY BETTER WEDNESDAY (0.5-0.6 INCHES) OVER
NORTHEASTERN NV WHERE A LOW POSSIBILITY CHANCE EXISTS FOR ISOLATED
DRY THUNDER.
A STRENGTHENING LPC AND WELL-AMPLIFIED ULT OFF THE WESTERN COAST
OF CANADA WILL MEANDER SOUTHEAST INTO THE PNW BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION, ESPECIALLY NORTHERN
NV. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS GROWING THE POTENTIAL FOR HOT, DRY, WINDY
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
SYSTEM WILL DRAGS ITS AXIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER FRIDAY PM
AND SATURDAY INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE AREA. FORCING SEEMS A BIT
INSUFFICIENT AT THIS TIME FOR MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT FUTURE MODEL RUNS SHOULD BE
MONITORED. THE WAVE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN A
WARMING TREND AND MODERATE HEATRISK FOR THE AREA MID WEEK. GROWING
CONFIDENCE IN A HIGH DRY WINDY SETUP FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
CONTINUES. LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF A
SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND. SUNDAY PM HOURLY GRIDS WERE EDITED TO INTRODUCE SOME ISO
DRYT ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER. THIS WAS IN COLLABORATION WITH BOI
AND PIH OFFICES WHO WERE ALSO INCREASING POPS IN THAT AREA.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AND ALL TERMINALS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AFTERNOON
WINDS AT KTPH AND KELY WILL GUST OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 18-20KTS
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN ACROSS THE STATE
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY
MID-WEEK. NEXT ROUND OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA, BUT PROBABILITIES
REMAIN AROUND TEN TO FIFTEEN PERCENT AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY WITH NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH
THURSDAY.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...97
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