457
FXUS65 KLKN 221104
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
404 AM PDT MON JUN 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WARMING TREND WILL CREATE MODERATE HEATRISK THIS WEEK
* HOT, DRY, WINDY FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY
* SYSTEM FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA WITH LIGHT WINDS. FOR TODAY,
EXPECT A WEST TO EAST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA. HEIGHTS WILL
CONTINUE THEIR SLOW RISE WITH THIS AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 90S. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES IN
CENTRAL NEVADA. LOOK FOR QUIET AND CALM CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S.
FOR TUESDAY, MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY SEEP WITH LIMITED
CAPE VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. EXPECTING CUMULUS BUILDUPS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BRING MINOR TO MODERATE
HEATRISK TO THE AREA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH TYPICAL
AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 20 MPH. DRY WEATHER PERSISTS DURING THE NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
THE SLOW MOISTURE SEEP CONTINUES WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING TO SEE
CUMULUS BUILDUPS DURING THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
NEVADA. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 90S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES FOR THURSDAY. MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUES ON
A SLOW INCREASE, ENOUGH SUCH THAT ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS
TO THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 90S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WILL
COMBINE WITH AN UPPER LOW OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF CANADA WILL
WOBBLE TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES
ROUGHLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION ACROSS THE AREA, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HOT, DRY, WINDY
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
SYSTEM WILL DRAGS ITS AXIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER FRIDAY PM
AND SATURDAY INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE AREA. FORCING SEEMS A BIT
INSUFFICIENT AT THIS TIME FOR MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT FUTURE MODEL RUNS SHOULD BE
MONITORED. THE WAVE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH
AS THE WARMING TREND IS NOW COMING INTO VIEW. HEATRISK VALUES
WILL BE MINOR TO MODERATE FOR THE AREA BY TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY
WEDNESDAY. GROWING CONFIDENCE IN A HIGH DRY WINDY SETUP FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE 24
HOUR PERIOD. LOOK FOR LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BREEZY
WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL TERMINALS OF KTPH-KELY
S-SW10-15G25KT.
FIRE WEATHER
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY MID-
WEEK. NEXT ROUND OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA, BUT PROBABILITIES
REMAIN AROUND TEN TO FIFTEEN PERCENT AT THIS TIME. ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY DEVELOP ON THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS WINDS BECOME BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY WITH LOW MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...86
FIRE WEATHER...86
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