841
FXUS65 KLKN 250944
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
244 AM PDT THU JUN 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN ELKO
COUNTY, WHITE PINE COUNTY AND NE NYE COUNTY
* CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NE NEVADA DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY
* STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING
* MUCH COOLER THIS WEEKEND
* A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: THE GRADUAL COOLING TREND CONTINUES
TODAY AS TROUGH ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY, WITH
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
REMNANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY WILL KEEP
A 10 TO 20% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN
ELKO COUNTY, WHITE PINE COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NYE
COUNTY. ANY STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP TODAY WOULD BE EXPECTED MAINLY
BETWEEN 11AM AND 5PM PDT, WITH WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50 MPH
POSSIBLE. LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAKER INSTABILITY TODAY
SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION TO EITHER PEA SIZED HAIL OR LIGHT RAIN
RANGING FROM VIRGA UP TO POSSIBLY A TENTH OF AN INCH.
FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL BE
CENTERED ALONG THE BC COASTLINE, WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH ENERGY
IMPACTING NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. MUCH OF NORTHERN NV (NORTH
OF I-80 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 93) CAN EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. WINDS ACROSS BOTH NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NV FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 15 TO 20
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER, RANGING FROM 70S ACROSS NORTHERN NV TO 80S
ACROSS CENTRAL NV.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS PROJECTED TO BE NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND
ON FRIDAY IS PROGGED TO BE CENTERED OVER EASTERN OREGON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH THE ASSOCIATED STRONG JET ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NV. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH GUSTING
40 TO 55 MPH. SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
EAST, CENTERING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND GREAT BASIN
REGION. MUCH COOLER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWS EACH
NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS, WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S.
WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH STILL BELOW NORMAL. NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: DEVIATED FROM NBM GUIDANCE WITH
RESPECT TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON, INCREASING THE DRY
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES IN ORDER TO GET ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN ELKO COUNTY AS WELL AS MOST OF WHITE
PINE COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF NE NYE COUNTY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
DRY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, HIGHEST ALONG THE UTAH BORDER
AND NEAR GREAT BASIN NATIONAL PARK. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN INCREASING
WINDS OVER THE COMING DAYS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A COOLING TREND,
WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT
REACHING INTO THE 30S.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEST TO SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE OTHER PRIMARY CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE A 10-20% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NV,
INCLUDING KEKO, KENV AND KELY. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE OF ANY TS
ACTIVITY OVER OR IN THE VICINITY OF THESE TERMINALS IS TOO LOW TO
ADD TO THE TAFS. AS FOR KWMC, KBAM AND KTPH, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THIS AFTERNOON ARE LESS THAN 5%.
FIRE WEATHER
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE (10-20%)
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ZONES 470, 425 AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF 426,
MAINLY BETWEEN 11AM AND 5PM. ZONES 469 AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
427 WILL HAVE A 5 TO 10% CHANCE OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 12 TO 17 MPH AND GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 5-15% RANGE IN MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS, RESULTING IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES NEVADA FROM THE PACIFIC NW LATER THIS
WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS ACROSS ALL FIRE WEATHER
ZONES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. STRONGEST WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY. THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL HOWEVER GIVE A BOOST TO
THE RHS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NV FIRE WEATHER ZONES. FOR NOW
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT 437. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RHS
FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS FOR ZONES 438, AS WELL AS
MOST OF ZONES 469 AND 424. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES THE MAIN
CONCERNS ON FRIDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO ZONES 470, 425, 426 AND 427.
AS FOR SATURDAY, STRONG WINDS EVERYWHERE WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF 15
TO 30 MPH GUSTING 40 TO 55 MPH, HOWEVER THE LOW AFTERNOON RHS
CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE LIMITED TO ZONES 425, 426 AND 427.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
NVZ 424, 425, 426, 427, 438, 469, AND 470
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...96
FIRE WEATHER...96
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