080
FXUS65 KLKN 252005
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
105 PM PDT THU JUN 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN ELKO COUNTY
AND WHITE PINE COUNTY
* CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NE NEVADA DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY
* STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING
* MUCH COOLER THIS WEEKEND
* A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: ONE FINAL DAY OF WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
WARMTH TODAY BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES AND PUTS AN
END TO IT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S TODAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S. TOMORROW, AN UPPER LOW MOVES ONSHORE IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT STRETCHING
AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTHERN NEVADA IS EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY WINDS
APPROACHING 40 MPH TO NORTHEASTERN NEVADA. TROUGH MOISTURE WILL
NEGATE ANY FIRE CONCERNS IN THE NORTHWEST SECTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA, BUT A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEVADA. ADDITIONALLY, TROUGH MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN NEVADA,
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 0.6-0.8 INCHES.
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REFLECT THIS DIVIDE,
WITH UPPER 70S AND 80S IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA BUT LOW 70S
FOR NORTHERN NEVADA. TROUGH PROGRESSION CONTINUES SOUTH AND EAST
FOR SATURDAY, RESULTING IN CONTINUED WIND ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA, MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN NEVADA, AND EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S IN FAR
NORTHERN NEVADA, WARMING TO THE UPPER 70S AND VERY LOW 80S IN FAR
CENTRAL NEVADA. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S
AND 40S, AND ACTION MAY BE NEEDED IN THE COLDEST SPOTS TO PROTECT
SENSITIVE VEGETATION OR ANIMALS.
THE CLOSEST PASSAGE OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL OCCUR ON
SUNDAY AND IT’S EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FORECAST.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S, WITH A FEW 50S EXPECTED AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE OREGON/IDAHO BORDER.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FOR A THIRD DAY IN NORTHERN
NEVADA, WITH A FEW HIGH ELEVATION (ABOVE 8000 FEET) SNOW SHOWERS
MIXED IN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BREEZY BUT WILL BE MUCH
WEAKER COMPARED TO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE
NORTHEAST AFTER SUNDAY AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME LOOKS TO TAKE
OVER IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THIS WOULD LEAD TO DRY AND WARMING
CONDITIONS, WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE LOW TO MID 80S BY
WEDNESDAY. THAT SAID, THERE IS A LOW CONFIDENCE/HIGHER IMPACT
MODEL SOLUTION FEATURING ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH THAT COULD IMPACT
THE FORECAST AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN INCREASING
WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
COLD WEATHER IMPACTS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO BASE NBM OUTPUT.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS UP TO 25KT
WILL BE THE STORY AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KENV, WHERE NO GUSTS ARE
FORECAST TODAY. WIND SPEED AND CLOUD COVER ARE BOTH EXPECTED TO
INCREASE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO AN INCOMING WEATHER
SYSTEM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING IN
SOUTHEASTERN ELKO AND NORTHEASTERN WHITE PINE COUNTY AND ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MAINLY ALONG THE UTAH BORDER UNTIL THEY’RE
CUT OFF FROM DAYLIGHT HEATING AROUND SUNSET. TOMORROW, A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ZONES 470, 425, 426 AND 427 DUE TO STRONG
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 MPH AND SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WAS TOO HIGH TO INCLUDE THE REST OF OUR ZONES
BUT WINDS WILL STILL BE STRONG THERE AS WELL. WINDS FOR SATURDAY
ONLY STRENGTHEN FURTHER, GUSTING UP TO 50 MPH AT TIMES, BUT THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH ONLY INCLUDES ZONES 425, 426 AND 427 AS ALL
OTHER ZONES HAD RELATIVE HUMIDITY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR SUNDAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF VERY COOL
TEMPS, RH ABOVE 20%, AND DECREASING WINDS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO START THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES
WARM AGAIN.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
NVZ 425, 426, 427, AND 470
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR 425, 426, 427
DISCUSSION...94
AVIATION...94
FIRE WEATHER...94
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