431
FXUS65 KLKN 262145
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
245 PM PDT FRI JUN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS
EVENING
* CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NE NEVADA DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY
* STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL DEVELOP THROUGHOUT NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEVADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING
* CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN
SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEVADA DUE TO GUSTY WINDS
AND LOW HUMIDITY
* A FREEZE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF ELKO COUNTY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY MORNING
* A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST RADAR LOOP IS DEPICTING
A LINE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
LINE RUNNING FROM JARBIDGE SOUTH TO ELKO TO MANHATTAN. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE BEING REPORTED FROM REMOTE OBSERVATION PLATFORMS
WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF A TENTH TO LESS THAN TWO-TENTHS OF AN
INCH ACROSS HUMBOLDT COUNTY. EXPECT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE OFF-AND-ON THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF ABOUT A TENTH TO TWO TENTHS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 40S.
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
IS POSITIONED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT THIS TIME. MODEL
SIMULATIONS ARE SHOWING THIS FEATURE DIVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
SETTING UP SHOP ACROSS WASHINGTON AND OREGON BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH WEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL NEVADA AND A PORTION OF THE NORTH. IN ADDITION, THIS
STRONG WIND WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN CENTRAL
NEVADA SUCH THAT THE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG
WARNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA, ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 100-250J/KG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENTLY FELT,
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL 20 TO 25
DEGREES COOLER. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S IN THE NORTH
AND 70S AND 80S IN CENTRAL NEVADA. THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE COOLER AS WELL. PORTIONS OF ELKO COUNTY MAY SEE
READINGS IN THE LOW 30S, AND AS SUCH, A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR NORTHERN ELKO AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ELKO COUNTIES. A FROST
ADVISORY FOR OTHER LOCATIONS MAY BE REQUIRED, ESPECIALLY IF
READINGS CONTINUE TO COME IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S RANGE IN THE
VALLEYS.
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY. IN ADDITION, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE BE BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS ONLY REACHING THE LOW 60S
TO LOW 70S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AS WELL. FOR THE OVERNIGHT,
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FREEZE PRODUCTS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S.
MODELS ARE SHOWING GENERAL TROUGHINESS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA MONDAY THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PORTION. KEPT THE NBM FORECAST
INTACT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 70S AND 80S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AND
MAINLY IN THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO CLIMB FROM THE 30S AND 40S TUESDAY
MORNING TO THE 40S AND 50S BY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHER WIND SPEEDS
ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS ACROSS CENTRAL
NEVADA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: NBM WIND FORECAST WAS BROUGHT UP
SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BROUGHT DOWN A FEW
DEGREES IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES ACROSS NORTHERN AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO HIGH WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH POSSIBLE FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING TO 35KT BEFORE DIMINISHING. LOOK FOR A TEN TO FIFTEEN
PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR -TSRA ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS KWMC-
KBAM-KEKO AND HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AFTER 18Z. WINDS TO DEVELOP AFTER
18Z W20-25G30-40KT ACROSS ALL TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. EXPECT BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING
LATE. IN ADDITION, SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
AS WELL. LOOK FOR COOLER CONDITIONS TOMORROW, THOUGH CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED FOR THE CENTRAL NEVADA ZONES OF
425-427. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE LOCATIONS
TOMORROW. EVEN COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S AND 70S, MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE TWENTY
PERCENT AND BREEZY WINDS.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH 11 PM THIS EVENING FOR NVZ425>427-470.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM SATURDAY FOR NVZ425>427.
FREEZE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NVZ031-039.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR NVZ033>041.
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...86
FIRE WEATHER...86
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