823
FXUS65 KLKN 110722
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1222 AM PDT SAT JUL 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* MODERATE RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES EACH AFTERNOON TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY
* NEAR RECORD HEAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
* ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR CENTRAL NV ON SATURDAY FOR
HOT, DRY, WINDY CONDITIONS
* MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
NEVADA NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO UTAH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND TEN DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA
SATURDAY. RECORD HEAT IS EXPECTED IN ELKO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NEAR
RECORD HEAT IS ANTICIPATED IN ELY AND EUREKA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HERE ARE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT PROBABILITIES FOR SELECT LOCATIONS IN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA ON SATURDAY, JULY 11TH, 2026:
ELKO - 100%
BATTLE MOUNTAIN - 100%
WEST WENDOVER - 100%
CARLIN - 99%
WINNEMUCCA - 98%
WELLS - 98%
EUREKA - 80%
SPRING CREEK - 75%
ELY - 70%
HOT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
ANTICYCLONE ALOFT PROGRESSES NORTHEASTWARD INTO WYOMING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY, PUSHING MONSOONAL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE SILVER STATE. THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOULD PERSIST INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR A DAILY CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HERE ARE THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES FOR SELECT
LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA ON TUESDAY, JULY 14TH,
2026:
EUREKA - 48%
ELY - 46%
AUSTIN - 43%
RUBY LAKE - 42%
DUCKWATER - 41%
GREAT BASIN NATIONAL PARK - 41%
WELLS - 35%
ELKO - 34%
CARLIN - 32%
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REGARDING A MODERATE RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES EACH
AFTERNOON TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN NEAR
RECORD HEAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REGARDING MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEVADA NEXT WEEK. NO DEVIATIONS FROM THE NBM MODEL.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING AT NORTHERN TERMINALS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
KENV. KTPH AND KELY WILL SEE WIND GUSTS OF 22-25KTS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN NYE,
SOUTHERN LANDER, AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTIES FOR HOT, DRY, WINDY
CONDITIONS. SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES COUPLED WIND GUSTS OF 30-33 MPH
OVER FIRE WEATHER ZONES 426/427 SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY WARRANT THE
ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. BEGINNING
MONDAY A SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE STATE.
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE OVER THE REGION SUGGESTS THAT THE NATURE OF
STORM ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK WILL BE MORE WET THAN DRY.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
NVZ031-034-035-038-039.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY NVZ033.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
NVZ036-037-040-041.
DISCUSSION...87
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99
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