546
FXUS65 KLKN 120712
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1212 AM PDT SUN JUL 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* MODERATE RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON
* MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NEVADA EARLY
NEXT WEEK
* MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
HOT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST SUNDAY AS AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT
PROGRESSES NORTHEASTWARD INTO WYOMING. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY, PUSHING MONSOONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE SILVER
STATE. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS WILL BE WIND
GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES. PRECIPITABLE WATER ANOMALIES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 90TH
PERCENTILE TO THE 99TH PERCENTILE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MULTI-DAY
IMPACTS COULD SPUR TARGETED OPPORTUNITIES FOR REPETITION OF AREAS
GETTING IMPACTED BY CONVECTION IN CONSECUTIVE, RESULTING IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HERE
ARE THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES FOR SELECT LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEVADA ON TUESDAY, JULY 14TH, 2026:
EUREKA - 46%
ELY - 45%
LUND - 44%
GREAT BASIN NATIONAL PARK - 43%
CURRIE - 42%
RUBY LAKE - 42%
DUCKWATER - 39%
JACKPOT - 35%
WELLS - 34%
ELKO - 32%
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE SHOULD NOT BE AS
DEEP AS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN A
MODERATE RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD
INTO EASTERN NEVADA EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IN A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KENV.
FIRE WEATHER
HOT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST SUNDAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NEVADA MONDAY. DEEP, ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN
WETTING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
NVZ031-034-035-038-039.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY NVZ033.
DISCUSSION...87
AVIATION...87
FIRE WEATHER...
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