950
FXUS65 KLKN 130723
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1223 AM PDT MON JUL 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NEVADA
STARTING MONDAY
* MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS SETTING UP OVER THE PLAINS AND IS EXPECTED TO FUNNEL
MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHWEST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MOISTURE IS ALREADY SURGING INTO THE STATE AS
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN NV CAN BE
SEEN ON SATELLITE AND RADAR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECTATION IS
FOR SHOWERS AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO SPREAD SLOWLY FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH TODAY, WITH STORM ACTIVITY BEING A MIX OF WET AND DRY.
MOISTURE CONTINUES ITS NORTHWARD ADVECTION INTO NORTHERN NEVADA BY
TUESDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. BY TUESDAY,
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 200% TO 250% OF
STANDARD, AND THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE OF THE FORECAST
IS EXPECTED AS A RESULT.
A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO ENTER NEVADA FROM THE
WEST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT IT WILL STILL BE
ANOMALOUSLY WET AND CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN
EASTERN NEVADA. GIVEN BOTH THE EXCESSIVE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE SAME AREAS
DAY AFTER DAY, A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN PLACE
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED
STORM POTENTIAL IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN FOR THE
WEEKEND, BUT MODEL VARIANCE REGARDING UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW
MEANS THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST MOISTURE IS STILL IN FLUX.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MONSOONAL
MOISTURE THIS WEEK, BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS AS
DESCRIBED ABOVE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
POTENTIAL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO BASE
NBM OUTPUT.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AT KWMC, KBAM, KELY, AND KTPH WILL
RANGE 18-22KTS. -TSRA IS POSSIBLE AT KELY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CIGS AND VIS WILL BE INTERMITTENTLY REDUCED IN AND AROUND
TS ACTIVITY LEADING TO MOMENTARY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. WINDS IN
AND AROUND TS ACTIVITY WILL BE BRIEFLY GUSTY AND ERRATIC.
FIRE WEATHER
BEGINNING MONDAY MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL WORK ITS WAY UP INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NV AND BE IN PLACE THROUGH THIS WEEK. MONDAY
THERE EXISTS POTENTIAL FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 437/424/438/469/470, WHILE FIRE WEATHER ZONES 425/426/427
WILL SEE MORE OF A MIX OF WET AND DRY STORM ACTIVITY. BY TUESDAY
THE RISK OF MAINLY DRY STORMS DIMINISHES GREATLY AS A BIG PUSH OF
MOISTURE REACHES NORTHERN NV. THIS SETUP LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ033.
DISCUSSION...94/99
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page