102
FXUS65 KLKN 140847
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
147 AM PDT TUE JUL 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEARLY
EVERY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THIS WEEK.
* MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD EARLY THIS
MORNING THANKS IN PART TO REMNANT CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN FEATURE DRIVING THIS MOISTURE AXIS IS
A LARGE LONGWAVE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
STATES. A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST IS ALSO
AIDING IN FUNNELING THIS DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
FOR TODAY, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN AN
ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE AT OR OVER AN INCH. WITH RESPECT
TO CLIMATOLOGY, THIS AMOUNTS TO NEAR THE MAXIMUM VALUE FOR JULY
14. FORECAST SURFACE-BASED CAPE WILL BE BETWEEN 200 TO 600 J/KG
WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES CENTERED ACROSS LANDER, EUREKA, AND ELKO
COUNTIES. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY. THERE IS AN ABOVE
AVERAGE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE MOIST
ATMOSPHERE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE TUESDAY EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THANKS TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION IN THE
80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. LOOK FOR THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT, TAPERING
OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
HI-RESOLUTION ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE NBM HAVE BEEN HONING IN ON
AREAS WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR AT LEAST A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OF RAINFALL TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN LANDER AND EUREKA COUNTIES INTO
WHITE PINE AND NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ELKO COUNTIES. THIS APPEARS
TO BE THE GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR THUNDERSTORM EVOLUTION THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
ON WEDNESDAY, A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN
THE EAST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S
TO LOW 90S. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH GUSTS TO 15
MPH. LOOK FOR THE SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE BY EVENING WITH CLOUDS
SCATTERING. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS SUGGEST
THAT THE CENTER OF THE STRONG RIDGE WILL BEGIN SHIFTING WESTWARD
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, LEADING TO HEIGHT RISES
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL ONCE
AGAIN CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 90S THROUGH THIS PERIOD
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EACH AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FAVOR THE 50S AND 60S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
NUDGED POP GRIDS TOWARDS CURRENT TRENDS IN RADAR ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE MOISTURE PUSH, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN EXACT STORM FORMATION AND TRACKING THAT
WILL RESULT IN HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS. LATEST HI RESOLUTION
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE PLACES HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD FOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL
TOTALS ACROSS SOUTHERN LANDER AND EUREKA COUNTIES EASTWARD INTO
WHITE PINE COUNTY WITH A ZONE OF HIGHER TOTALS EXTENDING NORTHWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IN
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH THURSDAY.
AVIATION
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH VICINITY SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO MONSOONAL MOISTURE PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION. WINDS PRIMARILY FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT TURNING GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WITH STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19Z THROUGH
06Z WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PRIMARILY STARTING IN CENTRAL
NEVADA AND ENDING ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA AND INTO SOUTHERN OREGON
AND IDAHO.
FIRE WEATHER
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HIGH
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AMOUNTS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD AREAS OF AT
LEAST 25% CHANCES OF WETTING RAINS TODAY WITH LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. ANOMALOUS PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK RESULTING IN
CONTINUED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN NEVADA.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING
NVZ031-033>041.
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...84
FIRE WEATHER...84
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