651
FXUS65 KLKN 150900
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 AM PDT WED JUL 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
BALANCE OF THE WEEK.
* ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN AND
EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH SATURDAY.
* A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH SATURDAY
* TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RUN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXITING NORTHERN NEVADA INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING WHERE REMNANT INSTABILITY
REMAINS UNCAPPED. THESE HAVE BEEN SUB-SEVERE AND THOUGH HAVE BEEN
DROPPING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL OF UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR, HAVE
BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY ADDITIONAL FLOOD
ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. ALLOWED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE
ON SCHEDULE LATE YESTERDAY EVENING.
FOR WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO THE WEST AND POSITION
ITSELF ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. MODEL OUTPUT IS TRYING TO
KEEP THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT OR ABOVE THREE-QUARTERS OF
AN INCH BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA, ESPECIALLY
WHERE VALUES ARE IN THE 90-95TH PERCENTILE FOR MID-JULY. THE BEST
CAPE VALUES ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NEVADA (ELKO AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES). 700-500MB STORM MOTIONS
CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE AT ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
AGAIN, THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED MODERATE RAIN WITH SOME OF THE
CELLS THAT FORM TOMORROW. HI-RES GUIDANCE BEGINS FIRING STORMS BY
11 AM TO THE NOON TIMEFRAME. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT EXCEPT
FOR HIGHLY LOCALIZED BREEZES AND GUSTS IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO WANE DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
AND 60S.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT IN
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST REGION THURSDAY CREATING A VERY SIMILAR
FORECAST COMPARED TO TODAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A RATHER
MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NEVADA WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AT OR ABOVE THREE- QUARTERS OF AN INCH. IN ADDITION,
FORECAST SURFACE- BASED CAPE VALUES OF 300-700J/KG ARE SEEN OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS CONCERN REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY
OF A MULTI-DAY RAIN EVENT IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN REGARDS TO WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS FORM AND PASS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 90S FOR THURSDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND
60S.
MODEL SIMULATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW NOT MUCH MOVEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AS THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION REMAINS
ACROSS UTAH, WYOMING, AND COLORADO. THE FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE WEEKEND, KEEPING A
RATHER MOIST ENVIRONMENT OVER THE REGION. WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN A
VIGILANT WATCH FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING DUE TO STORMS THAT
FORM OVER THE SAME AREA AND DROP RAIN. HIGHS THROUGH THIS
TIMEFRAME WILL BE IN THE 90S, THOUGH NO TRIPLE DIGITS ARE YET IN
THE FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
NO CHANGES TO THE NBM WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH WITH REGARDS TO THE SHORT TERM WET
FORECAST WITH THUNDERSTORMS FAVORED EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS ELKO AND
WHITE PINE COUNTIES ESPECIALLY. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IN
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH THURSDAY. LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE
CLUSTER SOLUTIONS START TO BRING A LONGWAVE TROUGH INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT DISAGREEMENT
EXISTS IN HOW AMPLIFIED IT REMAINS IN REGARDS TO WIND IMPACTS TO
OUR REGION. SHOULD IT REMAIN MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE LESS LIKELY
SCENARIO, STRONGER WINDS WOULD BE FAVORED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN FROM 19Z
THROUGH 03Z WITH LOCALIZED BRIEF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE FOR THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS TO TERMINALS AT EKO, ELY, AND
ENV WHERE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE GREATER.
FIRE WEATHER
DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES REMAINING MOSTLY ABOVE 20
PERCENT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER ZONE 425. UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND MORE WET THAN DRY
THUNDERSTORMS NEARLY EVERY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY FOR MOST
FIRE WEATHER ZONES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONE NOTABLE EXCEPTION
IS NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS THURSDAY FOR NORTHWESTERN ZONE 437
THURSDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES DROPPING BELOW 15 PERCENT.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...86/84
AVIATION...84
FIRE WEATHER...84
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