162
FXUS65 KLKN 161328
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
628 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
BALANCE OF THE WEEK.
* ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
AND EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH SATURDAY.
* A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH SATURDAY.
* TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RUN NEAR NORMAL WITH WARMING BY THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
FOR TODAY, THE UPPER RIDGE CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO BE ACROSS
EASTERN UTAH AND WYOMING. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO KEEP A
FAIRLY MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF THREE-QUARTERS TO NINE- TENTHS
OF AN INCH. CLIMATOLOGICALLY, THIS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE HIGH
SIDE. IN ADDITION, SURFACE BASED CAPE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE
ROBUST WITH VALUES OF 350 TO 800 J/KG. 700-500MB STORM MOTIONS
WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. EVEN SO, THERE COULD BE
LOCALIZED MODERATE RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF ELKO AND WHITE PINE
COUNTIES. HI- RES GUIDANCE BEGINS FIRING STORMS BY 11 AM TO THE
NOON TIMEFRAME. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT EXCEPT FOR HIGHLY
LOCALIZED BREEZES AND GUSTS IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
WANE DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
LITTLE MOVEMENT IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION REMAINS ACROSS
UTAH, WYOMING, AND COLORADO. THE FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE WEEKEND, KEEPING A RATHER
MOIST ENVIRONMENT OVER THE REGION. GUIDANCE HAS LOWERED
PRECIPITABLE WATER ANOMALIES IN WESTERN NEVADA (HUMBOLDT COUNTY)
WHICH IS LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THIS AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN A VIGILANT
WATCH FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING DUE TO STORMS THAT FORM OVER THE
SAME AREA AND DROP RAIN. HIGHS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME WILL BE IN
THE 90S, THOUGH NO TRIPLE DIGITS ARE YET IN THE FORECAST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
CHANGES WERE MADE TO EXPAND THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SLIGHTLY
WESTWARD TODAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH WITH RESPECT IN THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST WITH WET THUNDERSTORMS FAVORED EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS
ELKO AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES ESPECIALLY UP TO THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE CLUSTER SOLUTIONS CONTINUE
TO BRING A LONGWAVE TROUGH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT DISAGREEMENT EXISTS IN HOW AMPLIFIED IT
REMAINS IN REGARDS TO WIND IMPACTS TO OUR REGION. SHOULD IT REMAIN
MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE LESS LIKELY SCENARIO, STRONGER WINDS WOULD
BE FAVORED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS
15 TO 20 KT, ESPECIALLY AT WMC AND TPH AFTER 18Z. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN AFTER 18Z AT EKO, ENV, AND
ELY, WITH THE A 20-30% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF AND
ERRATIC WIND GUSTS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND WINDS SHOULD WANE
AFTER 03Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT CONTINUES, THOUGH
REDUCED FROM WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR IS BEGINNING TO WORK ITS WAY
INTO ZONES 437. 438, AND 424. 20-30% CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE A
POSSIBILITY WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS ZONE 469 MAY TREND ON THE DRIER SIDE BUT OPTED TO HOLD OFF
ON ANY FIRE PRODUCTS GIVE RECENT RAINS THE PAST FEW DAYS. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS AREA SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS TREND DRIER HERE
THIS AFTERNOON.
WET THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY ACROSS ZONES 470 AND 425 AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE STREAM
CONTINUES, THOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS INTO UTAH.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...84
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