559
FXUS65 KLKN 162258
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
358 PM PDT THU JUL 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
BALANCE OF THE WEEK.
* ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
AND EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH SATURDAY.
* A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH SATURDAY.
* TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RUN NEAR NORMAL WITH WARMING BY THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAINS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TO GIVE US ANOTHER
DAY OF ACTIVE WEATHER. A FEW THUNDERSTORM CELLS HAVE PRODUCED
HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL. LOOK FOR THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO WANE
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S.
ON FRIDAY, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CIRCULATION OVER UTAH, WYOMING, AND COLORADO. THE FLOW WILL BE
WEAK ALOFT AND OUR STORY WILL REMAIN THAT OF TWO ATMOSPHERES.
BISECTING THE FORECAST IN HALF FROM ELKO, LANDER, AND NORTHWEST
NYE, THE EASTERN HALF WILL BE MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF EIGHT TENTHS TO OVER AN INCH, WHILE A TIGHT MOISTURE
GRADIENT REMAINS, AND WEST OF THE ABOVE AFOREMENTIONED AREA,
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE SIX-TENTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS. THIS
WILL BE AN EFFECTIVE DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN NO STORMS AND WET
STORMS. A MARGINAL THREAT (FIVE TO FIFTEEN PERCENT) FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL CONTINUES FOR THE EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
TOMORROW INTO THE 80S TO UPPER 90S WITH SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES TO
30 MPH. EXPECTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO WANE ONCE AGAIN IN THE
EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
LITTLE MOVEMENT IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AS ALL MODELS DEPICT THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION
STAYING PUT ACROSS UTAH, WYOMING, AND COLORADO. THE FLOW CONTINUES
TO REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, KEEPING A RATHER
MOIST ENVIRONMENT OVER THE REGION. GUIDANCE HAS LOWERED
PRECIPITABLE WATER ANOMALIES IN WESTERN NEVADA (HUMBOLDT COUNTY)
WHICH IS LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THIS AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN A VIGILANT
WATCH FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING DUE TO STORMS THAT FORM OVER THE
SAME AREA AND DROP RAIN. HIGHS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME WILL BE IN
THE 90S, THOUGH NO TRIPLE DIGITS ARE YET IN THE FORECAST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: CHANGES WERE MADE TO EXPAND THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SLIGHTLY WESTWARD TODAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
HIGH WITH RESPECT IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH WET
THUNDERSTORMS FAVORED EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS ELKO AND WHITE PINE
COUNTIES ESPECIALLY UP TO THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IN
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LONG
RANGE ENSEMBLE CLUSTER SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BRING A LONGWAVE
TROUGH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT
DISAGREEMENT EXISTS IN HOW AMPLIFIED IT REMAINS IN REGARDS TO
WIND IMPACTS TO OUR REGION. SHOULD IT REMAIN MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE
LESS LIKELY SCENARIO, STRONGER WINDS WOULD BE FAVORED INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE UPCOMING 24 HOUR PERIOD
ACROSS KWMC-KBAM-KTPH. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT BUT WILL
INCREASE TOMORROW AFTER 18Z WITH GUSTS TO 25KT. FOR THE EASTERN
TERMINALS OF KEKO-KENV-KELY, TS CHANCES REMAIN ABOUT TWENTY TO
THIRTY PERCENT DURING THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER
04Z. ADDITIONAL TS DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTER 19Z WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY AT KELY (FIFTY PERCENT) WITH LOWER PROBABILITY
AT KENV (THIRTY FIVE PERCENT) AND KEKO (TWENTY FIVE PERCENT). MAIN
TS THREATS TOMORROW WILL BE ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30KT ALONG
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE
UNDER A MOIST ENVIRONMENT, THOUGH DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
OVER FIRE ZONES 437, 438, AND 424. MAIN THREATS FROM THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOCALLY BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. ANY LOCATIONS THAT
HAVE RECEIVED PREVIOUS RAINFALL, AS WELL AS OVER BURN SCARS, MAY
BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO RUNOFF AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. BURN SCARS
MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE DEBRIS FLOWS AS SEVERAL AREAS HAVE EXPERIENCE
HIGH RAINFALL RATES.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...86
FIRE WEATHER...86
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page