877
FXUS65 KLKN 201751
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1051 AM PDT MON JUL 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES IN NORTHERN
NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON
* HISTORICALLY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT TUESDAY
* FLASH FLOOD WATCH TUESDAY FOR MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA
* A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN MOST OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT NORTHERN
NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF
HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES.
AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL UNITED STATES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PULL MONSOONAL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA,
RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS WILL BE
LOCALIZED FLOODING, SMALL HAIL, WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH, AND
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MOST OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ELKO MAY BREAK ITS ALL TIME
RECORD FOR PRECIPITABLE WATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN PARTS OF EASTERN NEVADA
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR
MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TUESDAY. HERE ARE THUNDERSTORM
PROBABILITIES FOR SELECT LOCATIONS IN EASTERN NEVADA ON TUESDAY,
JULY 21ST, 2026:
LUND - 57%
ELY - 56%
GREAT BASIN NATIONAL PARK - 53%
EUREKA - 51%
CURRIE - 49%
RUBY LAKE - 46%
AUSTIN - 41%
TONOPAH - 41%
WELLS - 38%
ELKO - 33%
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING DUE TO
LINGERING MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THIS MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
(SLIGHT) WILL REMAIN IN THE SERVICE AREA FORECAST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REGARDING A MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES IN NORTHERN
NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN HISTORICALLY
HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT TUESDAY. HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REGARDING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA TUESDAY. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. NO
DEVIATIONS FROM THE NBM MODEL OUTPUT.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY
OF KEKO, KELY, KTPH, KBAM, AND KWMC THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. DIRECT TERMINAL IMPACT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS NEAR 45
KNOTS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAINFALL.
FIRE WEATHER
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE SMALL
HAIL, WIND GUSTS NEAR 55 MPH, AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES. ENHANCED RUNOFF AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN
STORMS THAT FORM OVER AREAS WITH ANTECEDENT RAINFALL FROM EARLIER
THIS WEEK (ESPECIALLY PORTIONS OF 470 AND 425).
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ030-031-033-036-038.
FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
NVZ031-033>041.
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