463
FXUS65 KLKN 211738
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1038 AM PDT TUE JUL 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* HISTORICALLY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT TODAY
* FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY FOR MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA
* A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY
* DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PULL MONSOONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO MOST
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA, RESULTING IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. ELKO MAY BREAK ITS
ALL TIME RECORD FOR PRECIPITABLE WATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN MOST OF EASTERN NEVADA TODAY.
IN ADDITION, THERE IS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY. HERE ARE THUNDERSTORM
PROBABILITIES FOR SELECT LOCATIONS IN EASTERN NEVADA ON TUESDAY,
JULY 21ST, 2026:
EUREKA - 57%
LUND - 50%
RUBY LAKE - 50%
ELY - 49%
AUSTIN - 48%
CURRIE - 47%
TONOPAH - 44%
WELLS - 43%
GREAT BASIN NATIONAL PARK - 43%
ELKO - 42%
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MOST OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA WEDNESDAY, SETTING UP ANOTHER PERIOD OF INCLEMENT
WEATHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING, ALTHOUGH NOT AS
ACTIVE AS TODAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AS A
RESULT, STORM CHANCES WILL DWINDLE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, BEFORE
ENDING BY MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING HISTORICALLY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE CONTENT TODAY. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY. HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REGARDING A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN DECREASING RAIN CHANCES
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO DEVIATIONS FROM THE NBM MODEL OUTPUT.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY
OF KEKO, KELY, KTPH, KBAM, AND KWMC THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. DIRECT TERMINAL IMPACT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 KNOTS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAINFALL.
FIRE WEATHER
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE SMALL HAIL, WIND
GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH, AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. ENHANCED
RUNOFF AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN STORMS THAT FORM OVER
AREAS WITH ANTECEDENT RAINFALL FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS (ESPECIALLY
PORTIONS OF 470 AND 425).
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING NVZ031-033>041.
87
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page