729
FXUS65 KLKN 221735
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1035 AM PDT WED JUL 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* VERY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT TODAY
* A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
* MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN MOST OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
* MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES THROUGHOUT NORTHERN
NEVADA FRIDAY AFTERNOON
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES THIS AFTERNOON. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE IN MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA, RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. HERE ARE THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES FOR SELECT
LOCATIONS IN EASTERN NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY, JULY 22ND, 2026:
ELY - 55%
LUND - 53%
GREAT BASIN NATIONAL PARK - 51%
CURRIE - 50%
EUREKA - 46%
WELLS - 45%
RUBY LAKE - 44%
SPRING CREEK - 42%
ELKO - 40%
JACKPOT - 35%
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND
NORTHWESTWARD THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT,
STORM CHANCES WILL DWINDLE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, BEFORE ENDING
BY MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEVADA WILL BE AROUND FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. HEAT-SENSITVIE GROUND IN NORTHERN NEVADA WILL
HAVE A MODERATE RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED. HERE ARE PROBABILITIES OF TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT FOR SELECT LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN NEVADA ON FRIDAY, JULY
24TH, 2026:
WINNEMUCCA - 95%
BATTLE MOUNTAIN - 95%
CRESCENT VALLEY - 95%
WEST WENDOVER - 65%
CARLIN - 65%
ELKO - 55%
MCDERMITT - 45%
OROVADA - 30%
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REGARDING VERY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC CONTENT TODAY. HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REGARDING A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN
MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN A MODERATE RISK OF
HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES THROUGHOUT NORTHERN NEVADA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. NO DEVIATIONS FROM THE NBM MODEL OUTPUT.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY
OF KELY, KTPH, KBAM, KWMC, AND KENV THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. DIRECT TERMINAL IMPACT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 KNOTS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAINFALL.
FIRE WEATHER
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE SMALL HAIL, WIND GUSTS NEAR
45 MPH, AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. ENHANCED RUNOFF
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN STORMS THAT FORM OVER AREAS
WITH ANTECEDENT RAINFALL FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS (ESPECIALLY
PORTIONS OF 470 AND 425).
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...87
AVIATION...87
FIRE WEATHER...87
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