063
FXUS65 KLKN 231909
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1209 PM PDT THU JUL 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES DIMINISH EACH AFTERNOON, ENDING BY SUNDAY
* MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES THROUGHOUT NORTHERN
NEVADA FRIDAY AFTERNOON
* ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
SHIFTING NORTHWEST, EFFECTIVELY CUTTING OFF MONSOONAL MOISTURE.
WHILE AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY, STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 90S TO POTENTIAL TRIPLE DIGITS WHILE LOWS REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. THE HOTTEST DAY IS CURRENTLY FORECAST
FOR TOMORROW, WITH HEAT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT AND A MODERATE RISK
OF HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES IN NORTHERN NEVADA. MOST MODELS HAVE
THIS PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH, WITH THE
HIGH REMAINING IN PLACE AND SUPPRESSING MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO
NEVADA. THE POTENTIAL OUTLIER SOLUTION, HOWEVER, SHOWS THE HIGH
WOBBLING TO THE EAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY, WHICH WOULD ALLOW SOME
MOISTURE AND STORM CHANCES TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS
CURRENTLY A LOW CONFIDENCE SOLUTION BUT WOULD BE AN IMPACTFUL
ONE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DECREASING
STORM CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL MOISTURE RETURN MID WEEK. NO CHANGES MADE
TO BASE NBM OUTPUT.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20KT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AT KTPH AND
KWMC. PROB30S ARE IN EFFECT FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WHICH HAVE
A CHANCE OF IMPACTING KEKO AND KELY, ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG
WINDS UP TO 50KT AND POTENTIAL DECREASED VISIBILITY DUE TO HEAVY
RAIN. ALL SITES EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS AFTER
SUNSET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN THE
PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, MAINLY IN EASTERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA. GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REACH
ELEVATED LEVELS, BUT DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE TOO HIGH FOR ANY
SERIOUS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM PDT FRIDAY
NVZ030-031-033-036-038.
DISCUSSION...94
AVIATION...94
FIRE WEATHER...94
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