040
FXUS65 KLKN 241857
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1157 AM PDT FRI JUL 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES DIMINISH EACH AFTERNOON, ENDING BY SUNDAY
* MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES THROUGHOUT NORTHERN
NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON
* ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: THUNDERSTORMS ARE KICKING OFF IN
CENTRAL NEVADA AND ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN PART OF
NORTHERN NEVADA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. VERY WARM CONDITIONS
ARE ALSO PRESENT, WITH HEAT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT IN NORTHERN
NEVADA THROUGH THIS EVENING. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 90S TO VERY LOW TRIPLE DIGITS, BUT THE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS SHIFTING WEST AND CUTTING
OFF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE FLOW. THIS WILL ALSO DECREASE STORM
CHANCES TOMORROW AND END THEM ENTIRELY STARTING SUNDAY. THE HIGH
AND ASSOCIATED RIDGING ARE FAVORED TO STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST, WHICH WOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND WARM.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND TOMORROW, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE REGARDING
AREAL COVERAGE TOMORROW. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST PAST TUESDAY DUE TO MODEL VARIABILITY REGARDING THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO NBM OUTPUT.
AVIATION
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
TERMINALS, WITH KEKO/KENV/KELY/KTPH IN THE THUNDERSTORM ZONE
TODAY. AS USUAL, THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS WILL INCLUDE STRONG ERRATIC
WINDS AND POTENTIAL SHORT LIVED VISIBILITY DROPS DUE TO HEAVY
RAIN. KWMC, KBAM AND KTPH CAN ALSO EXPECT PREVAILING GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 25KT THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, EXPECT LIGHT WINDS
LESS THAN 10KT AND VFR CONDITIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TODAY, WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW. ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL AFTERNOON WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR EASTERN NEVADA FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, HOWEVER MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, AT AROUND 18-25%.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ030-031-033-036-038.
DISCUSSION...94
AVIATION...94
FIRE WEATHER...94
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