181
FXUS65 KLKN 251942
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1242 PM PDT SAT JUL 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT FOR EASTERN PORTIONS
OF NV
* MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES THROUGHOUT NORTHERN
NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON
* SHOWER AND STORMS CHANCES LINGER ALONG EASTERN BORDER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY
* ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HEATRISK CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: AN HPC OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
RESPONSIBLE FOR AN ACTIVE MONSOON WEEK OVER THE SILVER STATE WILL
DEEPEN AND RETROGRADE TO THE WEST NEXT WEEK. THIS EFFECTIVELY
WILL CUTOFF MONSOONAL FLOW TO THE REGION (THOUGH CAPE/PW VALUES
STAY ROBUST ALONG THE EASTERN NV BORDER THROUGH WEDNESDAY) AND
CREATE HAZARDOUS HEAT RISK CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA BY END OF
THE WEEK.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY, RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
CLOUD BUILDUPS AND STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER ELKO COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON. STORM COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO BE MAINLY OVER ELKO
COUNTY AND NORTHERN LANDER, EUREKA, AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES. PW
VALUES THIS AFTERNOON OVER THOSE AREAS ARE RANGING 0.8-1.0 INCH SO
LOCALIZED BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS FORM.
STORM MOTION IS RELATIVELY QUICK BUT TRAINING STORM MOTION
ESPECIALLY OVER LOCATIONS PREVIOUSLY RECEIVING HEAVY RAIN THIS
WEEK WILL KEEP MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. OTHER HAZARDS WITH STORMS ON SATURDAY
INCLUDE BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.
AS THE HPC DEEPENS ON SUNDAY MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS SHUNTED
EASTWARD AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO EXTREME EASTERN
PORTIONS OF ELKO AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES ALONG THE UT BORDER. THIS
SETUP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. BEYOND WEDNESDAY THE
HPC WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND RETROGRADE BACK WESTWARD OVER
THE SW CONUS. THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DRY OUT THE REGION EVEN
FURTHER ENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE NEAR FUTURE. THE
BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASE IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
UNDER THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S AND
TRIPLE DIGITS LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF
HEAT RELATED ILLNESS ACROSS THE AREA. HEAT ADVISORIES AND OTHER
PRODUCTS ARE MOST CERTAINLY POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK AS A HOT
WEATHER PATTERN ENTRENCHES ITSELF OVER THE REGION.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: TYPICAL ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
THE WIND/WINDGUST GRIDS AS NBM NORMALLY UNDERVALUES WIND SPEEDS
FOR HOT/DRY/WINDY CONDITIONS SUCH AS THOSE CREATED IN NW NV TODAY.
HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES OVER EASTERN NV
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A COMBINATION OF SST AND SERPISC WAS USED TO
EDIT HOURLY WX GRIDS THIS AFTERNOON AS NBM MISREPRESENTED STORM
CHANCES AND COVERAGE TODAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN
LINGERING STORMS OVER THE EASTERN BORDER THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
HEATRISK LATER THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. -TSRA FORECASTED AT KEKO, KELY, KBAM, AND KENV WILL
CREATE MOMENTARY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BRIEF GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS. WESTERLY AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AT ALL TERMINALS WILL
RANGE 22-25 KTS. GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY
EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
MINIMUM RH VALUES IN ZONE 437 TODAY PASSED CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS IN THE LATEST FORECAST. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED AS A RESULT, WITH WINDS GUSTING AROUND 35 MPH IN THAT AREA.
THIS CRITERIA MAY BE REACHED AGAIN TOMORROW IN THE SAME AREA.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALSO CONTINUE TODAY, WITH ISOLATED STORMS
FORECAST MAINLY IN ELKO COUNTY. AFTER TOMORROW, WINDS WILL BE
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL BUT NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ031-038.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING NV-FWZ437.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY NVZ033.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...94
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