017
FXUS65 KLKN 261904
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1204 PM PDT SUN JUL 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* LOW SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TODAY FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF NV
* ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND A WARMING TREND THIS WEEK
* INCREASING HEATRISK BY FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: THE ACTIVE PATTERN OF RECENT WEEKS
FINALLY COMES TO AN END TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO
DOMINANCE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE UTAH BORDER TODAY, AT ABOUT 5%
TO 10%. STARTING TOMORROW THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PREVIOUSLY
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL SHIFT FAR ENOUGH WEST TO ENTIRELY CUT
OFF MOISTURE TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE RESULTING DRYING TREND WILL
INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY WHEN PAIRED WITH
BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS 20-25 MPH AT TIMES. THE OTHER MAIN CONCERN
STARTING TOMORROW WILL BE HEAT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FIVE TO
TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND CLIMB INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS BY
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE AROUND TEN DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO INDICATES A MODERATE
RISK FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES, CREEPING INTO MAJOR RISK FOR
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN A FEW FINAL
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS
AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN INTENSE HEAT IMPACTS BY LATE WEEK. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO NBM OUTPUT.
AVIATION
GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS UP TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
SITES EXCEPT KENV TODAY. ADDITIONALLY THERE IS A 5 TO 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OR AT KELY AND KENV TODAY. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS NEAR 25MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF FWZ
437 SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
THIS HAS CREATED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN NW NEVADA. A
LOW PERCENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ALONG THE EASTERN NV
BORDER IN FWZ 425/470 THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS THAT DO OCCUR WILL
CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS INCLUDING DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. FASTER STORM MOTIONS TODAY WILL INHIBIT
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR FROM EXTINGUISHING ANY NEW STARTS.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY NVZ033.
DISCUSSION...94
AVIATION...94
FIRE WEATHER...99
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