275
FXUS65 KLKN 100701 AAA
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1201 AM PDT MON AUG 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON
* MONSOON WEATHER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK
* GRADUAL COOLING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN ITS LOCATION FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. THIS WILL KEEP A FAIRLY FEEBLE SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE
HINTING AT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. A WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED THAT
WILL SHUNT SOME OF THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE EAST, ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS WILL BRING A DECREASE IN THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH, THOUGH ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN
CENTRAL NEVADA AS EVIDENT BY THE DECREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES IN THE NORTH. HIGHS IN THE NORTH WILL BE A DEGREE OR THREE
COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 90S EXPECTED OVER THE AREA.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30
MPH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE US HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR WITH SOME ACTIVITY
REACHING SOUTHERN ELKO COUNTY. MAIN THREATS WILL BE THE CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 55 MPH. LOOK FOR
ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY WANE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S AND 60S.
BY TUESDAY, ALL MODELS SHOW THE SLOW STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH THE FOUR CORNERS
RIDGE MAINTAINING ITS POSITION. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN BE
CONFINED TO THOSE LOCALES ALONG THE US HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AGAIN COOL BY SEVERAL
DEGREES WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 50S.
ON WEDNESDAY, A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEVADA DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL LEAD TO AN UPTICK IN THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING A FIFTY TO SEVENTY PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WPC IS HIGHLIGHTING THIS TIME
WITH AN AREA EXPANSION NORTHWARD OF THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK.
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE LOOKING AT THIS EVENT AS IT UNFOLDS FOR
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. STORM MOTIONS AT THIS TIME
ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND SEVEN TO 14 KNOTS. HIGHS IN THE AFTERNOON
WILL FURTHER COOL WITH READINGS IN THE 80S AND 90S. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DAILY PATTERN
OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO COOL. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 80S BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: CONFIDENCE IS HIGH REGARDING A
COOLING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, AS WELL AS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL NEVADA. CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY
MODERATE FOR WEDNESDAY'S CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. NO DEVIATIONS FROM
THE NBM MODEL OUTPUT.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS ALL TERMINALS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOUR PERIOD. CONVECTION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, WITH VCTS
AT KELY. WIND GUSTS TO 20-25KT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS KWMC-KBAM-KEKO-KENV.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHERN NEVADA
TODAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO WEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS LOW AS EIGHT PERCENT. A MIX OF WET AND
DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED IN PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE
WIND GUSTS NEAR 55 MPH AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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