288
FXUS65 KLKN 101957
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1257 PM PDT MON AUG 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON
* MONSOON WEATHER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK
* GRADUAL COOLING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
INTERESTING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINNING TO DEVELOP FOR THE
WESTERN US AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH RELAXES ITS GRIP ACROSS THE
SILVER STATE. THE SUMMERTIME SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN
ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT WHICH
IS ALLOWING SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL
NEVADA. THIS WILL HELP LOWER TEMPERATURES TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES
AND WITH THE MOISTURE RAIN CHANCES DUE TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PREVALENT THIS WEEK. MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL HAVE A 20% TO 30% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
ALONG THE US 50 CORRIDOR. THESE STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING,
ALLOWING FOR A HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND GIVEN
THE DRY SURFACE LAYER AS WET STORMS MAY PRODUCE UP TO 0.10” OF
RAIN. STILL THERE WILL BE A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM, WITH
AN ELEVATED RISK FOR LIGHTNING FIRE STARTS. WEDNESDAY A DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO CALIFORNIA, MODELS SHOW
THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP NEVADA OUT IN MULTIPLE WAYS, FIRST
DROPPING TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE LOW 80S TO LOW 90S. SECOND, IT WILL
HELP CHANNEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE FLOW INCREASING CHANCES FOR WETTER
STORM MODES. FINALLY, THE ADDED DYNAMIC COOLING AND DYNAMIC LIFT
WILL ALSO HELP TO INCREASE OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MID
TO LATE WEEK. THE ONLY QUESTION THAT IS UNRESOLVED IS HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST THE BEST MOISTURE GETS ADVECTED OVER NV. CURRENT
THINKING HAS ALL BUT FAR NW HUMBOLDT COUNTY SEEING A CHANCE AT
WETTING RAINS (≥0.10”) THIS WEEK. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERS
ARE SPLIT ON THIS SCENARIO AS SOME SHOW ALL OF HUMBOLDT GETTING IN
ON RAIN, WHEREAS SOME SHOW MOST OF N NV MISSING OUT. AFTER
SATURDAY THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NE INTO CANADA WHICH MAY LOWER
STORM CHANCES A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT MODELS ARE SPLIT ON THE
UPPER PATTERN AFTER SUNDAY AS THE GFS FAVORS KEEPING THE WESTERN
US UNDER SOME FORM OF TROUGHING ALOFT, WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THAT
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AGAIN SHIFT BACK WEST AFTER A FEW DAYS IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR CHANCES OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MIX
OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MIX OF WET
AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR NE NEVADA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE FOR ISOLATED MIX OF WET OR DRY
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NW NEVADA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
AFTER SUNDAY AS MODELS ARE DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE STRENGTH AND
LOCATION OF KEY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. AREAS OF FU WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR N NV TERMINALS
DUE TO REGIONAL WILDFIRES WITH LOCAL DROPS IN VISIBILITY. FOR
KELY, KTPH, AND KENV INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING
AFTERNOON VCTS. HAZARDS INCLUDE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 45KT,
LIGHTNING, AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER, CHANCES FOR DIRECT
TERMINAL IMPACTS FROM -TS ARE NEAR 10%. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT
OF THE WEST AT 10KT TO 20KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 30KT
POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY
AND TUESDAY AS BREEZY WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW GUST
UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE, WILL COMBINE WITH LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES.
FOR CENTRAL NEVADA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE A 20% TO 30% CHANCE
FOR A MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM
THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 50 MPH, GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. WEDNESDAY A UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST WHICH WILL HELP
BRING BETTER MID LEVEL MOISTURE, RAISING STORM CHANCES TO BETWEEN
50% AND 80% FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT 437 WHERE A 30% CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED STORMS RESIDE. STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL STORM EXITS TO THE NE.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...98
AVIATION...98
FIRE WEATHER...98
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