221
FXUS65 KLKN 111916
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1216 PM PDT TUE AUG 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
* MONSOON WEATHER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK
* GRADUAL COOLING TREND THROUGH FRIDAY
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS FINALLY STARTED IT
EASTWARD SLIDE AS AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NW INTO CALIFORNIA. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE
SILVER STATE. TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE A 20% TO 30% CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG THE US 50 CORRIDOR. THESE STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE SLOW MOVING, ALLOWING LONGER RESIDENCE TIME OVER A GIVEN
AREA, MEANING HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND GIVEN
THE DRY SURFACE LAYER AS WET STORMS MAY PRODUCE UP TO 0.25” OR
MORE OF RAIN. STILL THERE WILL BE A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
FORM ESPECIALLY AS STORMS FIRST FORM EACH AFTERNOON, WITH AN
ELEVATED RISK FOR GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES CAUSING FIRE STARTS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
NEVADA, MODELS SHOW THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP NEVADA OUT IN
MULTIPLE WAYS, FIRST DROPPING TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE LOW 80S TO LOW
90S. SECOND, IT WILL HELP CHANNEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE FLOW
INCREASING CHANCES FOR WETTER STORM MODES. FINALLY, THE ADDED
DYNAMIC COOLING AND DYNAMIC LIFT WILL ALSO HELP TO INCREASE
OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE RESULT WILL BE A 30% TO 80%
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY WILL REMAIN
ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA, BUT CHANCES HAVE RISEN TO 40% TO 60% OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN NEVADA. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING BETTER
CHANCES FOR ALL OF NORTHERN NEVADA TO SEE PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK.
THERE STILL IS A POSSIBILITY THAT NW HUMBOLDT COUNTY GETS MISSED,
BUT MODEL CONSENSUS QPF NOW SHOWS UP TO 0.25” OF RAINFALL THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH ARES OF CENTRAL NV COULD RECEIVE UP TO
0.75” OR MORE. AFTER SATURDAY THE FIRST UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NE INTO
CANADA WHICH MAY LOWER STORM CHANCES A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT
STORM CHANCES WILL AVERAGE 20% TO 40%. NEXT MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER PATTERN, AND TODAY’S SOLUTIONS ARE NO DIFFERENT. GFS AND THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRADING SOLUTIONS OF EITHER ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH SOMEWHERE OVER THE WESTERN US, OR THE RETURN OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE FOUR CORNERS OR GREAT BASIN. THE ONE NEW
AGREEMENT FOR THE MOST RECENT RUNS IS KEEPING THE SOUTHERLY
MONSOONAL FLOW. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE PARTICULAR PLACEMENT OF EITHER
RIDGE OR TROUGH WILL DICTATE HOW HIGH OR LOW STORM AND SHOWER
CHANCES BECOME FOR THE LONGER TERM. SO FOR NOW WILL HOLD OVER A
LOW 20% TO 30% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FIR
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NV FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR CHANCES OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WET
WITH A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
CENTRAL NEVADA.
THERE MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MIX OF WET
AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS EXPANDING TO COVER HUMBOLDT AND ELKO
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
AFTER SUNDAY AS MODELS ARE DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE STRENGTH AND
LOCATION OF KEY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF FU WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR N NV TERMINALS IN THE
MORNINGS DUE TO REGIONAL WILDFIRES WITH LOCAL DROPS IN VISIBILITY.
FOR KELY, KTPH, AND KENV INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING
AFTERNOON VCTS. THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF VCSH THIS EVENING
FOR KWMC AND KBAM AS EVENING CONVECTION WANES, BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF IMPACTS TO FCS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TUESDAY OUT
OF THE W AT 10KT TO 20KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 30KT
POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN NEVADA
TUESDAY AS BREEZY WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW GUST UP TO
30 MPH POSSIBLE, WILL COMBINE WITH LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. FOR
CENTRAL NEVADA TUESDAY WILL SEE A 20% TO 40% CHANCE FOR A MIX OF
WET AND A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THESE STORMS
WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 50 MPH, GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES, AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. WEDNESDAY A UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST WHICH WILL HELP BRING BETTER MID
LEVEL MOISTURE, RAISING STORM CHANCES TO BETWEEN 40% AND 80% FOR
ALL ZONES. STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL STORM EXITS TO THE NE.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...98
AVIATION...98
FIRE WEATHER...98
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