968
FXUS65 KLKN 121952
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1252 PM PDT WED AUG 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL NV DUE TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AND POSSIBLE DEBRIS FLOWS
* MONSOON WEATHER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY’S
FORECAST AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO THE EAST AND TROUGHING TO THE
WEST CONTINUE TO FUNNEL MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
MAINLY IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA TODAY BEFORE EXPANDING TO THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW. TOMORROW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE
THE WETTEST DAY, WITH WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.25” AND A BAND
OF 0.5” TO 0.75” SHAPING UP JUST SOUTH OF THE US-50 CORRIDOR.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN A SLIGHT (15%) RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR
TOMORROW AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGEST CELLS. THE TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY,
WEAKENING THE MOISTURE FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND MOSTLY CUTTING
OFF STORMS, LEAVING ABOUT A 10% TO 20% CHANCE THROUGH SUNDAY.
MODELS REMAIN IN DISAGREEMENT AFTER SUNDAY, WITH THE BIGGEST
QUESTION BEING THE FUTURE OF THE CURRENT MONSOON EVENT. THE
GENERAL INDICATION IS STILL FOR THE MONSOON TO CONTINUE IN CENTRAL
NEVADA, HOWEVER THE STRENGTH AND NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE EVENT
STILL DEPEND ON HOW THE UPPER RIDGE BEHAVES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS REFLECTING THE MORE
CUT OFF SCENARIO, WITH DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SPATIAL
EXTENT OF THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN A
MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AFTER SUNDAY AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRONGLY DISAGREE REGARDING THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN. NO CHANGES TO NBM FORECAST.
AVIATION
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY BEGINNING
ACROSS THE AREA. SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE ONLY EXPECTED AT
KENV/KELY/KTPH AT THIS TIME BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR KBAM/KEKO
(ABOUT 10% TO 20% PROBABILITY). AS USUAL, ANY CELLS NEAR A
TERMINAL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS 40KT OR MORE
AND LOWERED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS UP TO 25KT WILL BE THE STORY THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
CONTINUED MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE GREAT BASIN WILL
RESULT IN SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE
THIS MOISTURE WILL KEEP HUMIDITY LEVELS ELEVATED AND PREVENT DRY-
WINDY THREATS, HEAVY RAINFALL MAY POSE FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOW
THREATS, PARTICULARLY FOR THE NEW PASS AND WARD FIRE AREAS.
LIGHTNING MAY ALSO BE A THREAT TO FIRE PERSONNEL, ALTHOUGH
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT ANY NEW STARTS FROM
LIGHTNING.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING NVZ035-037-040-041.
DISCUSSION...94
AVIATION...94
FIRE WEATHER...94
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