063
FXUS65 KLKN 132006
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
106 PM PDT THU AUG 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL NV DUE TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AND POSSIBLE DEBRIS FLOWS
* MONSOON WEATHER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A MARGINAL (5% TO 14%) RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WINDS IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WINDS FOR EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FAR NORTHERN NEVADA.
ADDITIONALLY, CENTRAL NEVADA IS IN A SLIGHT (15% TO 39%) CHANCE
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WHILE NORTHERN NEVADA IS IN A MARGINAL (5%
TO 14%). ALL COMBINED, TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A COOL AND WET DAY,
WITH CENTRAL NEVADA EXPECTING 0.25” TO 0.5” THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
LOCALLY HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS, AS
WELL AS LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. STORMS DIE DOWN OVERNIGHT BEFORE
RETURNING TOMORROW, ALTHOUGH MUCH WEAKER AND MORE SPREAD OUT.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL REMAINS A MARGINAL THREAT, ALONG WITH LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN DRIVING
THESE STORMS LIFTS OUT OF NEVADA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW TAKING ITS PLACE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO MOSTLY CUT OFF THE
MOISTURE FLOW AND RESULT IN A DRY WEEKEND. MODELS STILL CAN’T
AGREE ON THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK, WITH THE STICKING POINT BEING
THE PATH OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER. THE FURTHER SOUTH
SOLUTION WOULD SEE IT CLIP NORTHERN NEVADA AND WOULD BE A MUCH
COOLER AND POTENTIALLY WETTER SOLUTION THAN THE ONE KEEPING IT
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER, HOWEVER IT IS NOT CLEAR WHICH SOLUTION
IS MORE LIKELY AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TOMORROW. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN A DRY
WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TO START NEXT WEEK. NO
CHANGES FROM THE NBM.
AVIATION
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING AND ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPACT ALL SITES THROUGH LATE EVENING. PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT SHORT
DURATION VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 2SM HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AND CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT AT ALL SITES. STRONG
ERRATIC WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
WIND DRIVEN ELEVATED CONDITIONS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED FOR PORTIONS
OF ZONE 437 WHILE ALL OTHER ZONES ARE FOCUSED ON HEAVY RAINFALL
AND ASSOCIATED RUNOFF AND DEBRIS FLOW POTENTIAL. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL CONTINUES FOR TOMORROW, ALTHOUGH LESS INTENSE THAN TODAY,
BEFORE MOSTLY DRYING OUT FOR SATURDAY.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ035-037-040-041.
DISCUSSION...94
AVIATION...94
FIRE WEATHER...94
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