800
FXUS65 KLKN 141910
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1210 PM PDT FRI AUG 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* MONSOON WEATHER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW
* QUIETER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR THE
WEEKEND
* WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.
THE TROUGH EXIT TOMORROW WILL RESULT IN A MUCH MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE, BUT WEAK STORM POTENTIAL DOES PERSIST IN FAR EASTERN
NEVADA. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY, WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND DUE TO DEVELOPING RIDGING OVER THE WEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. WHILE MODEL AGREEMENT HAS
INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, THE
FORECAST FOR LATE WEEK REMAINS VARIABLE, WITH DISAGREEMENT
FOCUSING ON THE TIMING OF A WEST COAST TROUGH IMPACT. THE SLOWER
SOLUTION WOULD MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND WHILE THE FASTER SOLUTION WOULD BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND STORM POTENTIAL AS EARLY AS THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEAKENING
STORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE PAST
WEDNESDAY. NO CHANGES FROM THE NBM.
AVIATION
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT
ALL SITES EXCEPT KTPH TODAY. AS USUAL, IMPACTS WILL BE ERRATIC
WINDS 40KT TO 50KT AND BRIEF DECREASED VISIBILITY WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL. KELY AND KTPH ARE ALSO EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS AROUND 25KT
THIS AFTERNOON, DYING DOWN AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AND WINDS 10KT OR LESS.
FIRE WEATHER
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TODAY BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WET ENOUGH TO RULE OUT NEW LIGHTNING STARTS. FLOODING OR
DEBRIS FLOWS REMAIN A MINOR THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST RAIN CORES.
A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN NEVADA TOMORROW BEFORE A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND TAKES OVER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...94
AVIATION...94
FIRE WEATHER...94
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page