059
FXUS65 KLKN 151617
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
917 AM PDT SAT AUG 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
* MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN SOUTHERN WHITE PINE AND
EASTERN NYE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
* ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY MONDAY
* WARMING TREND SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
AN UPPER-LEVEL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP
MONSOONAL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NEVADA TODAY,
RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG.
THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS WILL BE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS NEAR
50 MPH AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. THERE IS A
MARGINAL RISK (5-15%) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN SOUTHERN WHITE PINE
AND EASTERN NYE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF RECENT BURN SCARS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONE ALOFT WILL PROGRESSIVE RETROGRADE
WESTWARD SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, THE FLOW SHOULD SHIFT
FROM SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY, PUSHING MONSOONAL MOISTURE
EASTWARD. THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK OF WILDFIRES IN HUMBOLDT
COUNTY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING DUE TO SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS LOW AS
12 PERCENT. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA WILL BE TWO TO FOUR DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES
FRIDAY. HERE ARE PROBABILITIES OF MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OF 90
DEGREES OR HIGHER FOR SELECT LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA ON THURSDAY, AUGUST 20TH, 2026:
BATTLE MOUNTAIN - 96%
ELKO - 95%
WINNEMUCCA - 95%
WEST WENDOVER - 95%
CARLIN - 95%
TONOPAH - 90%
WELLS - 90%
SPRING CREEK - 85%
EUREKA - 85%
ELY - 70%
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN
NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MODERATE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN SOUTHERN
WHITE PINE AND EASTERN NYE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING A WARMING TREND
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY MONDAY. NO DEVIATIONS FROM
THE NBM MODEL OUTPUT.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF KEKO
AND KENV THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DIRECT THUNDERSTORM
IMPACT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
FIRE WEATHER
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS WILL
BE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY MONDAY DUE TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH
AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS LOW AS 12 PERCENT.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
87
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