328
FXUS65 KLKN 192142
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
242 PM PDT WED AUG 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY
* MODERATE HEAT RISK FOR THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE LOW DESERT
OF EASTERN ELKO COUNTY TO INCLUDE THE WENDOVER AREA.
* CHANCES FOR MONSOON STORMS RETURN STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON
* ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND OVER PORTIONS OF
HUMBOLDT
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY (MAX TEMPS: UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S &
MINRH VALUES IN THE 10 TO 15% RANGE). THE IMPINGING LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO WEAK AND
FLATTEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEVADA FROM
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL
INTRODUCE A SOUTHERNLY FLOW TO MOST OF THE NORTHERN NEVADA EXCEPT
FOR HUMBOLDT, THUS INTRODUCING INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE RETURN
OF THE THREAT OF MONSOON T-STORMS AND INCREASING RH FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE T-STORM PERCENTAGE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE. MAX TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD WILL LOWER DOWN INTO THE 80S AND 90S MORE
SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. FOR PORTIONS OF LANDER,
HUMBOLDT, AND WESTERN ELKO COUNTIES THE TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH LOWER RHS COMING OFF THE THE SIERRA
RANGE, THUS PRODUCING POTENTIAL RED FLAG OR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER A PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTION AREA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR CHANCES OF WARMING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH HEAT HEADLINES POSSIBLE FOR SE
ELKO COUNTY.
THERE LOW CONFIDENCE FOR A 10% TO 20% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN WHITE PINE AND SOUTHEASTERN ELKO
COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN AGAIN OVER FAR
NORTHERN CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZE OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 MPH.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEVADA, BEGINNING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER MOST AREAS ACCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF HUMBOLDT
AND NORTHWEST LANDER COUNTIES. WHERE THE EXTENT OF THE MONSOON
MOISTURE REACHES INTO, THERE WILL BE A AFTERNOON AND EVENING 20%
TO 50% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
OVER MAINLY HUMBOLDT COUNTY STARTING SATURDAY AND THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND INCREASING THE THREAT OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY. AFTERNOON - EARLY EVENING WINDS FROM THE SOUTH -
SOUTHWEST WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA AND TAF SITES.
THERE WILL BE A LOW 10% TO 20% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
NORTH OF KELY AND OVER TOWARDS KENV THROUGH THIS EVENING. IF
ENROUTE ACROSS THE AREA OF T-STORMS, LOOK FOR THE FOLLOWING
IMPACTS; LIGHTNING, BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL, AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
UP TO 45KT, HOWEVER NOT DIRECTLY IMPACTING TAF SITES OF KENV OR
KELY.
FIRE WEATHER
HOT (UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S) AND DRY CONDITIONS (10% TO 15%) ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY AFTERNOON
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-15 MPH AND GUSTS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH. THE
COMBINATION OF HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL WARRANT ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. IN ADDITION THERE
WILL BE A LOW 10% TO 20% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR
ZONE 425 AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF ZONE 470 THIS AFTERNOON, AND FOR
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF ZONES 469 AND 470 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST FRIDAY AS A
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IMPINGES UPON THE WEST COAST FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. TWO THINGS AS A RESULT OF THIS TROUGH, ALLOW FOR THE
RETURN OF MONSOON WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE HUMIDITY AND LOWER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE AREA. FOR FIRE ZONES 437 AND
424 - NORTHWEST SECTION OF THE ZONE, ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST DUE TO LOW RH AND WINDY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM PDT THURSDAY NVZ033.
DISCUSSION...85
AVIATION...85
FIRE WEATHER...85
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