488
FXUS65 KLKN 202101
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
201 PM PDT THU AUG 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* MODERATE HEAT RISK TODAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE LOW DESERT OF
EASTERN ELKO COUNTY TO INCLUDE THE WENDOVER AREA.
* HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SE ELKO COUNTY TODAY
* CHANCES FOR MONSOON STORMS RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH MODERATE
HEAT RISK IN WENDOVER AREA TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST REMAINED IN PLACE. HEAT ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR
THE WENDOVER AREA UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE SOME ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY
ALONG THE JARBIDGE WILDERNESS AREA.
TOMORROW, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF CONUS. THIS WILL HELP PUSH THE
UPPER RIDGE IN THE SOUTHWEST EAST TOWARDS NEW MEXICO AREA WHICH
WILL BRING BACK THE MONSOON SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO NEVADA. BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, THE FLOW WILL BRING IN AMPLE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TO GIVE A 20-40% CHANCE FOR A MIX OF ISOLATED WET/DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. MODELS ARE SHOWING A TREND OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THE AREA AS PWAT VALUES ELEVATE UP TO AN
INCH WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY IN THE AREA, HOWEVER FAST STORM
MOTIONS AND VERY DRY SUBSURFACE LAYER MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL IN A GIVEN AREA, BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. THERE IS STILL
A SLIGHT CHANCE SOME AREAS MAY RECEIVE UP TO 0.25 INCHES OF RAIN
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS MORE IN LINE FOR AREAS RECEIVING UP TO 0.1
INCHES OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TOWARDS A COOLING TREND
HOWEVER HIGHS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
REGION. ELEVATED WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON UP TO 10-15 MPH, GUSTS
20-25 MPH.
SATURDAY, INCREASING CHANCES FOR MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NEVADA AS MONSOONAL FLOW
CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHWEST. SOME MIXING IN THE SUBSURFACE LAYER
WILL AID IN MORE PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE VALLEY FLOORS,
HOWEVER STORM MOTION REMAINS HIGH WHICH WILL LIMIT SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON A COOLING TREND WITH HIGHS
NOW INTO THE LOW 90S WITH SOME AREAS REACHING INTO THE 80S.
ELEVATED WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON UP TO 10-15 MPH, GUSTS 20-25 MPH.
SUNDAY, CHANCES FOR MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
BUT MORE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEVADA AS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE
NORTH MOVES EAST ACROSS CANADA, ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE TO SPREAD
BACK OUT AND FLATTEN. THIS WILL BEGIN TO CUT OFF THE MONSOONAL
FLOW IN THE AREA AS IT WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE STATE. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO COOL TO ITS LOWEST OVER THE WEEKEND YET REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 80S TO 90S. ELEVATED WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON UP TO 10-15 MPH, GUSTS
20-25 MPH.
MONDAY AND THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK, SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE
AIR WILL LINGER ACROSS NEVADA, HOWEVER CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NEVADA AS
THE MOISTURE PUSHES EASTWARD. BY MID-WEEK, MUCH OF THE MOISTURE
WILL HAVE PUSHED OUT OF NEVADA WITH DRIER CONDITIONS TAKING OVER
AS THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS FLATTENS OUT WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST, HOWEVER LINGERING CHANCES FOR
MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEVADA. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. ELEVATED
WINDS EACH AFTERNOON UP TO 10-15 MPH, GUSTS 20-25 MPH.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WITH HEAT ADVISORY FOR WENDOVER AREA UNTIL 9 PM THIS
EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MONSOON THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY EACH AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED THE NBM GRIDS TO BETTER REPRESENT
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. KELY AND KTPH WILL BOTH EXPERIENCE WINDS GUSTING UP
TO 25KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, DYING DOWN NEAR SUNSET.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED DRY/WINDY FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT MONSOONAL PUSH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO KICK OFF IN EARNEST IN CENTRAL NEVADA TOMORROW WITH A
MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDER. STORMS EXPAND FOR THE WEEKEND AND ARE
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO FULLY WET STORMS AS MOISTURE INCREASES.
ZONE 437 MAY STILL SEE ELEVATED DRY/WINDY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND
DEPENDING ON THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ033.
DISCUSSION...97
AVIATION...97
FIRE WEATHER...94
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